\u3000\u3000 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (300888)
The performance increased rapidly compared with 2019, and the offline growth rate of consumer goods business was bright, maintaining the "buy" rating
The company released the performance forecast, and it is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be 7.9-8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34% - 36% compared with 2020 and a year-on-year increase of 75% - 82% compared with 2019. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 1.2-1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 65% - 69% compared with 2020 and a year-on-year increase of 120% - 147% compared with 2019. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021q4 will be 2.08-2.38 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 21% - 31%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 96-246 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 63% - 85%. The performance base of the medical sector is high in 2020. As the base of the medical sector returns to normal in 2021, we reduce the profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 1.300/15.71/1.900 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023 (the original value is 1.935/24.10/2.955 billion yuan), the corresponding EPS will be 3.05/3.68/4.45 yuan, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price is 23.6/19.5/16.2 times. The consumption sector of the company will maintain a rapid growth, The base of the medical sector has returned to normal. In the long run, the market space is broad, the investment focus remains unchanged, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
The off-line growth rate of healthy living consumer goods business is bright, and the high base of medical consumables business has passed
Healthy consumer goods business: it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 4-4.2 billion yuan, an increase of 14% - 19% over 2020 and 33% - 40% over 2019. After excluding mask products of the same caliber, it is estimated that the revenue will be 3.9-4.1 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 23% - 29% over 2020. The revenue of 2021q4 is expected to be 1.3 billion-1.5 billion, with a year-on-year increase of 8% - 25%. In 2021, the offline revenue increased by about 30% year-on-year, the revenue of platforms such as apps and official websites increased by 40% year-on-year, and the revenue of platforms such as tmall and JD was flat year-on-year. Medical consumables business: it is estimated that the revenue in 2021 will be 3.9-4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55% - 56% compared with 2020 and an increase of 159% - 166% compared with 2019. It is estimated that the export revenue of medical consumables will decrease by about 70% in 2021, mainly due to the significant increase in the production capacity of global epidemic prevention materials and the return of epidemic prevention product prices to normal. It is estimated that the e-commerce sales of medical consumables will increase by about 55% in 2021.
Outlook: the consumer goods business focuses on core categories, improves profitability, and the medical consumables business develops steadily
Consumer goods business: further increase the market share of cotton soft towels, sanitary napkins, underwear and other single products in categories. In terms of channels, it is estimated that there will be about 80 net stores in 2021, and the floor efficiency will increase steadily. It is estimated that there will be 120 net stores in 2022, about half of which will come from franchisees; Online and tmall, jd.com and other traditional e-commerce platforms are bound to obtain high-quality marketing resources at a low cost. In small programs and live e-commerce, high repurchase rate is obtained by outputting high-quality content and improving ROI. In terms of profitability, gradually improve retail discounts, streamline SKUs and steadily increase gross profit margin. Medical consumables business: further improve the market share of core products such as flat masks, and gradually increase the coverage of Chinese hospitals and OTC pharmacies.
Risk tip: the growth of consumer goods business is less than expected, and the industry competition intensifies.
