\u3000\u3000 Jiajiayue Group Co.Ltd(603708) (603708)
Event: the company issued a performance forecast. According to the preliminary calculation of the financial department, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of about 17.5 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of about 5% over the same period; The net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company is – 260 million to – 300 million yuan. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses from – 304 million yuan to – 344 million yuan in 2021, turning from profit to loss year-on-year; The impairment of goodwill has a great impact on the profits of the current period. After elimination, it is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in the current period will be 25 million yuan to 35 million yuan.
Comments: the actual operation is affected by the epidemic and economic downturn, and the company’s performance in this period is under pressure. In terms of store sales, in comparable stores, the company’s same store sales decreased year-on-year, and the state issued relevant policies such as social security reduction and energy fee preference in the same period, which affected the year-on-year increase in the rate of operation and management expenses in the current period, resulting in the year-on-year decrease in store profits; In the new stores, the cultivation climbing period of new stores is long, the early operation cost is high, and the loss is increased. 132 stores and 117 stores (including the stores incorporated into the merger and acquisition) will be added in 2020 and 2021 respectively. Due to the epidemic and economic downturn, the above stores will affect the profits of the current period; In addition, the company moderately increased its efforts to close stores to reduce the operating losses of relevant stores in 2022 and later years. Due to the long-term closure of 43 stores in 2021, the deferred expenses increased. We expect that Q4 may be under further pressure than Q3 in terms of sales, gross profit and expenses.
The profit turns from profit to loss. The actual operation is better than the apparent performance of profit. Going into battle light is conducive to subsequent recovery. In addition to business factors, the main reasons include the company’s comprehensive consideration of factors such as the impact of the epidemic and the uncertainty of the market environment, and according to the principle of prudence, the company will withdraw goodwill impairment loss of 291 million yuan to 329 million yuan for weilehui supermarket and Weike commercial chain; The application of the new leasing standards in the current period has a certain impact on the year-on-year decrease in profits. At the same time, closing the store is conducive to improving the overall operating efficiency.
Investment suggestion: under the background that pork promotes the moderate recovery of CPI, the overall supervision of community group buying, the long-term epidemic is expected to be repaired and the economy and consumption are stable, the operating environment of supermarkets is expected to recover. On the one hand, the company has a high proportion of fresh food and high performance flexibility; on the other hand, the operating efficiency is expected to be further improved; on the other hand, the company has refined management and high supply chain barriers. Due to the epidemic situation, decline in consumption and impairment of goodwill, the company exceeded expectations, The profit forecast was lowered from 340 million, 360 million and 410 million to – 290 million, 240 million and 380 million yuan (the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 was slightly reduced, the expense rate during the period was slightly increased, and the financial impact of non operating factors was accrued in 2021), and the rating was lowered to the overweight rating.
Risk tip: the epidemic situation is repeated, the number of stores does not meet expectations, the consumption decline exceeds expectations, and the goodwill is impaired. The performance prediction is the preliminary calculation result of the company, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the official annual report.
