\u3000\u3000 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872)
Event: Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) released the performance express of 2021. In 2021, it is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.116 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 0.14%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 753 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 15.39%. Among them, 2021q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 29.73%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 73.90%, with performance exceeding market expectations.
The condiment business has recovered, and the performance of real estate projects has increased. The condiment business of 2021q4 company recovered well. At the same time, the company confirmed the sales revenue of sold commercial houses of the "East Bank of Qijiang" project in December, and the real estate project also contributed to certain performance. Overall, the net interest rates of the company in the whole year of 21 / Q4 were 14.72% / 22.66% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -2.65pcts / + 5.76pcts. Looking at the delicious flavor of the subsidiary, it is estimated that the operating revenue of the whole year of 2021 will be 4.618 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 7.23%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 607 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of - 29.50%. Among them, 2021q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 6.69%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of 209 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 10.58%. The net interest rate of Meiweixian in the whole year of 21 / Q4 was 13.14% / 15.60% respectively, with a year-on-year increase of -4.15pcts / + 0.55pcts. The net interest rate of Q4's main business improved, mainly because some discounts were directly deducted from sales revenue rather than included in sales expenses.
The transmission of price increase is progressing smoothly, and the production capacity is escorted first. The focus of H2 work of the company includes: market promotion, stabilizing Ka, developing BC, boosting the second batch, tackling key catering and healthy development of online channels; In terms of price control, enhance product price elasticity and restore the driving force of channel sales. According to the channel research, the company announced the price increase in November 2021. At present, the price increase is still in the transmission process. After the price increase is successfully implemented, it is expected to improve the gross profit margin. The company is also actively promoting capacity expansion, such as the technological upgrading and expansion project of Zhongshan plant, Chubang phase III expansion project and Yangxi Meiweixian phase II project, so as to provide support for the large-scale production of subsequent products.
Market development continued to deepen, actively reform and look forward to results. As of 2021q3, the development rate of prefecture level cities nationwide reached 92.3%, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.3pcts, and the market development rate of districts and counties reached 60.83%, with a year-on-year increase of + 9.89pcts. In 2022, the company will still accelerate the development of blank market, accelerate the sinking of channels, continuously improve the market development rate at all levels, and implement measures combining short-term incentives and long-term support to provide necessary support to dealers. At present, the company is still in the throes of internal reform. We believe that we should pay attention to the improvement of the company's internal management. If the company can straighten out its internal mechanism and with the support of brand strength and product strength, it is expected to open up long-term growth space.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: considering that the company recognized the income of real estate projects in 2021q4, thus increasing the net profit in 2021, and the condiment business benefited from the price increase catalyst, the current recovery trend is good. We raised the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) 2021 to 2023 to RMB 753 / 761 / 871 million respectively (38% / 16% / 15% higher than the previous time), Equivalent to 0.95/0.96/1.09 yuan of EPS from 2021 to 2023, the current share price corresponds to 34 / 34 / 29 times of PE from 2021 to 2023, maintaining the rating of "overweight".
Risk warning: raw material price fluctuation risk; The improvement of internal mechanism is lower than expected; Food safety risks.
