\u3000\u3000 S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) (002352)
Event:
S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) release the performance forecast for 2021:
In 2021, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 4.2 billion yuan to 4.4 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.926 billion yuan to 3.126 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 40% – 43%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.78 billion yuan to 1.93 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.202 billion yuan to 4.352 billion yuan compared with the same period of the previous year, a year-on-year decrease of 69% – 71%.
In 2021q4, S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 2.4 billion yuan to 2.6 billion yuan, an increase of 672 million yuan to 872 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.45 billion yuan to 1.600 billion yuan, an increase of 422 million yuan to 572 million yuan over the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56%.
Key investment points:
Kerry’s consolidated statement was completed, its business profit continued to repair, and Q4 performance met expectations
In 2021q4, SF expects to realize a net profit attributable to its parent company of 2.4 billion yuan to 2.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39% – 50% and a month-on-month increase of 131% – 151%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 1.45 billion yuan to 1.600 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 41% – 56% and a month on month increase of 79% – 98%. The performance was in line with previous expectations. In the fourth quarter, SF achieved positive profit growth and continued to repair its profitability. In addition to the consolidated contribution of freight profit from Kerry Logistics, SF also achieved positive growth in its own business profit margin.
Single ticket revenue became positive month on month, capacity utilization continued to climb, and SF entered a period of profit restoration
Due to the continuous instability of the supply and demand pattern of international freight in 2021q4, the international air and sea freight rates remained high and volatile. Kerry Logistics also benefited from the high outlook of the international freight market and its profitability was stable. In addition to the consolidated profit contribution of Kerry Logistics, under the background of the downturn of China’s express industry in 2021q4, SF’s net profit of deducting non parent company still achieved positive growth, and its business profitability continued to repair, mainly for two reasons:
① revenue side: in December 2021, SF express business achieved a revenue of 15.414 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.77%, a business volume of 938 million tickets, a year-on-year increase of 8.31%, and a single ticket revenue of 16.43 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.43% and a month on month increase of 3.86%. At the same time, it achieved a year-on-year positive growth for two consecutive months. In December after the peak season, it achieved a month on month positive growth and further improved the quality of revenue. SF actively optimized the product structure and customer structure by adjusting the pricing strategy, and the single ticket revenue of economic express products increased year-on-year. With the gradual expansion of new businesses such as economy express, express, international and intra city, and the gradual maturity of the operation system, SF began to take the initiative to adjust prices and reduce subsidies for loss making customers, and its revenue capacity is expected to continue to improve.
② cost side: 2021 is a big year for SF’s capital expenditure. Due to the mismatch between capacity investment and business demand in the first quarter, the company’s performance is under pressure in the short term. However, since 2021q2, SF’s capacity utilization has climbed and its cost control ability has continued to improve. From 2021q1 to 2021q3, the year-on-year growth rate of SF’s business volume was 44.07%, 37.04% and 29.15% respectively, and the gross profit margin was 7.16%, 12.84% and 13.46% respectively. The month on month repair trend was clear. The year-on-year growth rate of SF’s business volume in 2021q4 was 13.51%, the year-on-year growth rate of business volume decreased, and the capacity utilization and operation efficiency were steadily improved. SF front-end uses science and technology to dynamically predict customer needs, and the back-end accurately matches resource investment. With the continuous promotion of four networks financing projects of express, express, warehouse network and Feng network, SF’s cost control ability has been improved and the optimization effect has been highlighted.
With the continuous improvement of revenue capacity and the continuous optimization of cost side, SF officially entered the profit recovery period.
From brand collaboration to business collaboration, we are optimistic about medium and high-end comprehensive logistics giants for a long time
As a medium and high-end comprehensive logistics giant, SF has carried out multi track layout through brand coordination on the basis of continuously building the moat of time-effective parts. Therefore, the scale of new businesses such as express, e-commerce express, international and intra city has expanded rapidly. However, with the gradual development and maturity of new businesses, the development strategy will also be adjusted from flow expansion to flow operation. Looking forward to 2022, with the promotion of the four networks financing project, SF new business will continue to explore business collaboration on the tone of raising revenue, controlling costs and ensuring profits, continuously optimize production capacity, accelerate loss reduction, develop more mature new business and even take the lead in realizing profits. In the long run, the landing of Kerry Logistics acquisition has further improved SF’s international layout and the coordinated development of multi business track, and the comprehensive logistics territory is gradually mature. Brand synergy and business synergy are expected to bring industry-leading scale and synergy effects to SF, and take a good look at SF’s leading position and competitive advantage in the comprehensive logistics track in the long run.
The profit forecast and investment rating adjust the profit forecast according to the company’s performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from S.F.Holding Co.Ltd(002352) 2021 to 2023 will be 2020.70 billion yuan, 278.725 billion yuan and 323.682 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 4.319 billion yuan, 8.329 billion yuan and 10.945 billion yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 72.71, 37.71 and 28.69 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of aging parts is lower than expected, the cost optimization is lower than expected, the macroeconomic growth slows down, the competition of medium and high-end tracks intensifies, and the M & A integration is lower than expected
