\u3000\u3000 Beijing Shiji Information Technology Co.Ltd(002153) (002153)
Event: on January 28, the company issued the performance forecast for 2021. During the reporting period, the net loss attributable to the parent company was 380-540 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 462.30-699.05%; The non net loss deducted was 350-510 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 553.08-760.21%; The operating revenue was 300-360 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 9.56% to + 8.52%.
The provision of large goodwill impairment, short-term epidemic factors led to a decline in performance. During the reporting period, combined with the judgment of industry development and enterprise operation, the goodwill formed by the acquired Shiji retail Information Technology Co., Ltd. and galasys PLC was preliminarily evaluated and calculated. Due to the continuous high incidence of overseas epidemics and the significant adverse impact of repeated epidemics in China, the profit realization predicted in the original goodwill impairment test of the company was poor; In addition, in order to cope with the poor economic environment and the transformation of service mode in the international market, the company strengthened market development, resulting in increased expenses, increased material and commodity procurement costs, resulting in a decline in commodity sales gross profit. The above factors deviate significantly from the information available in the 2020 forecast, resulting in the company's estimated total amount of goodwill impairment of RMB 300 million to RMB 400 million in 2021 (the final amount shall be subject to review).
R & D and sales are still heavily invested, and the long-term development strategy of internationalization and platform is practiced. 1) In terms of revenue, during the reporting period, the company's operating revenue is expected to be about 3-3.6 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of - 9.56% to + 8.52%; In terms of profit, excluding the above impairment factors and based on the annual operation, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be about - 140 million yuan to - 80 million yuan, mainly due to the continuous high incidence of overseas epidemic in the reporting period, and the overseas subsidiaries are seriously affected by the epidemic. 2) Facing the adverse external market environment, the company complies with the development trend of the industry, adheres to the internationalization and platform development strategy, increases product R & D investment, especially continues to focus on the continuous optimization and improvement of the platform products of the new generation of stone-based enterprises and the expansion of supporting product capacity, and the R & D expenses continue to increase; At the same time, the company continued to strengthen the promotion of stone based enterprise platform products and expand market publicity, resulting in a large increase in sales expenses. The above reasons together led to losses in this year. 3) We expect that with the gradual departure of the epidemic, the maturity of the company's new generation of cloud products, the rapid growth of the number of customers of the company's catering cloud infrasys cloud and the accumulation of customers of Shiji enterprise platform, the company's international business development will bring considerable long-term profits to the company.
The new generation of cloud products have significant competitive advantages, and a new growth curve is about to open. 1) The global hotel it concentration is relatively high. Micros is an old leading enterprise (acquired by Oracle in 2014), and the development of cloud technology has become an effective window for other companies to overtake in corners. The company is keenly aware of industry changes and has strong strategic foresight. Since the start of international transformation in 2015, Early independent investment in the research and development of a new generation of "stone based enterprise platform - hotel industry solution" based on Cloud Architecture (i.e. SEP) 。 At present, in order to form a relatively perfect cloud product line, the company has achieved phased results and an international leading position in big data application services, hotel catering management system, background system and hotel foreground management system. 2) After years of research and development, cloud products represented by cloud POS and cloud PMS have significant advantages in performance. Among them, the new generation SEP has been recognized by Peninsula Hotel and intercontinental hotel, an international well-known hotel group. In addition, with rich experience in customized service for large customers and rapidly expanding global network layout, the company is expected to fully benefit from the trend of hotel it cloud and obtain the leading position in the global hotel it market. Referring to micros volume, the company's long-term income space is expected to reach 10-15 billion yuan. 3) Affected by the global epidemic, the business progress of the company slowed down to a certain extent in 2020 and 2021. Considering that the cooperation agreements between the company and Peninsula, intercontinental and other international famous hotel groups have been successively implemented, and the global epidemic is expected to gradually stabilize in recent years, the company's internationalization and platform strategy is expected to continue to promote, and a new growth curve is about to open.
Maintain the "buy" rating. We expect the total operating revenue of the company from 2021 to 2023 to be 3.325 billion yuan, 3.976 billion yuan and 4.926 billion yuan (the previous forecast is 3.857 billion yuan, 4.638 billion yuan and 5.779 billion yuan); The net profit attributable to the parent company is -413 million yuan, 59 million yuan and 317 million yuan (the previous forecast is 276 million yuan, 448 million yuan and 687 million yuan). Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the risk of continuous impact of the epidemic, the risk that the overseas market promotion of cloud products is less than expected, and the risk of intensified trade friction
