\u3000\u3000 Huaneng Power International Inc(600011) (600011)
Event:
The company released the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of – 9.8 billion yuan to – 11.7 billion yuan in 2021.
Comments:
Coal prices rose sharply, and the performance of 21 years was expected to suffer a loss of 9.8-11.7 billion yuan
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021, and it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of – 9.8 billion yuan to – 11.7 billion yuan in 2021; The net profit deducted from non parent company was – 12.1 billion yuan to – 14 billion yuan. The company’s pre loss of performance in 2021 was mainly affected by external factors, and the company’s domestic coal purchase price rose sharply year-on-year. In 2021, the company completed 430.165 billion kwh of domestic electricity sales, a year-on-year increase of 13.23%; Among them, coal engine 378.528 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of + 10.81%; 26.867 billion kwh of gas turbine, a year-on-year increase of + 26.24%; 19.867 billion kwh of wind power, a year-on-year increase of + 46.78%; PV 3.408 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of + 46.90%. The increase of the company’s power consumption is mainly due to the fact that the power consumption of the whole society remains at a high level. Affected by the lower than expected hydropower output, the company’s thermal power generation has increased rapidly and promoted the green and low-carbon transformation, so the new energy power generation has increased.
It is expected that the profitability of the thermal power sector will improve in 22 years under the combination of downward cost and upward electricity price
From the cost side, the frequent policies promote the stable supply and price of coal, and the draft of the coal long-term association increases the regulation of the coal supply side. The coal price is expected to return to the rational range in 2022. From the perspective of electricity price, with the implementation of the policy of floating electricity price and the opening of a new round of market-oriented reform of electricity price, we expect that the price rise of electricity market-oriented transaction in various provinces in the later stage may continue to be high. From the annual trading results in 2022, the average transaction prices of Jiangsu, Guangdong, Shaanxi and other provinces are higher than the local benchmark coal price. Taking Jiangsu as an example, the average annual transaction price in 2022 was 466.69 yuan / MWh, 19% higher than the benchmark coal price. On the whole, the downward cost plus the rising electricity price is expected to improve the profitability of the company’s thermal power sector.
Actively transform new energy, and its growth attribute is expected to gradually highlight
In the context of carbon neutrality, the company has increased its capital investment in the field of new energy. In 2021, the total planned capital expenditure of the company is 56.407 billion yuan, of which the planned capital invested in wind power and photovoltaic is 31.382 billion yuan and 9.96 billion yuan, maintaining a high growth rate. In 2021, the company’s newly put into operation controllable power generation with a total installed capacity of 5.2gw, including thermal power 2gw, wind power 2.4gw, photovoltaic 0.8gw and biomass 0.03gw. By the end of 2021, the company’s controllable power generation installed capacity was 119gw. The volatility of the company’s performance is expected to gradually decrease as the company’s new energy assets are put into operation in the future.
Investment suggestion: considering the performance forecast of 2021, the performance forecast is lowered. It is expected that the net profit of the company from 2021 to 2023 will be -101.25/76.19/89.49 (the original value is 1.019/76.50/90.42) billion yuan, corresponding to PE of – 11 / 15 / 13 times, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the new installed capacity is less than expected, the coal price rises sharply, the risk of electricity price reduction, the downstream demand is lower than expected, the performance forecast is only the preliminary accounting result, and the specific data shall be subject to the official disclosure of the annual report
