\u3000\u3000 Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) (603056)
Event:
Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) issued the announcement of performance pre reduction in 2021:
According to the notice, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 is expected to be 73-186 million yuan, a decrease of 378-491 million yuan compared with the same period of last year; In 2021, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses is expected to be 160-273 million yuan, a decrease of 371-484 million yuan compared with the same period of last year.
From the quarterly data, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of listed companies was 11 million yuan, 05 million yuan and 12 million yuan respectively in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 in 2021. According to the forecast, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in Q4 in 2021 is 45 ~ 158 million yuan, which is higher than that in Q1 ~ Q3.
The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 in 2021 was -78 million / - 80 million / - 87 million yuan respectively. According to the forecast, in Q4 of 2021, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be - 27 ~ 86 million yuan, which will be reduced or increased compared with Q1 ~ Q3.
External environment pressure, internal business strategy adjustment, short-term performance pressure
The pre reduction of the company's performance in 2021 is mainly affected by the external environment and the adjustment of internal business strategy.
In terms of the external environment, the decline of the macro environment and the intensification of competition in the field of large cargo transportation slowed down the growth of the company's revenue, and the high oil price throughout the year had an adverse impact on profits.
In terms of internal strategy, based on the long-term layout, the company continues to increase resource investment, and the cost and expense are under pressure in stages: a new heavy goods division with higher efficiency of large goods collection and distribution is built in the collection and distribution link, so as to gradually replace the traditional inefficient business department; Continuously improve the proportion of intermediate transfer automation in the sorting process, expand the sorting capacity and expand the space for long-term business development; The transportation link can better ensure the transportation timeliness and improve the customer experience by increasing its own transportation capacity.
In terms of back office functions, from the second half of 2020 to the first half of 2021, the company has formulated and implemented a series of talent training programs, during which the management expenses increased significantly.
The effect of business strategy is obvious, the gross profit margin of Q4 is improved, and the performance is improved
With the continuous investment of the company's resources and the superposition of scale growth, the cost will continue to improve. In terms of transportation, deppon continued to enhance its ability to control transportation costs by improving its own transportation capacity and route planning; In terms of transfer, through the upgrading of automation equipment, the average daily sorting capacity of deppon has been greatly improved, and the scale effect is expected to gradually appear; In terms of terminal, the efficiency of terminal couriers brought by mode optimization is improved, and the efficiency and cost of Debang's whole process are expected to continue to improve.
In 2021, deppon's optimization of terminal and transportation links helped the company better hedge the impact of external factors on its performance. In the end link, the heavy goods division with higher efficiency, lower cost and better service has begun to gradually replace some inefficient business outlets; Measures such as transportation links and improving its own transport capacity have better hedged the impact of adverse factors such as rising oil prices, and the quality of time effective management of the whole link has been steadily improved.
In Q4 of 2021, the company's comprehensive gross profit margin improved. In terms of period expenses, on the basis of a significant increase in the thickness of talents, the company began to gradually improve the management efficiency of background personnel through organization and process optimization in the second half of the year, and the management expense rate also showed a qualitative decline.
The company actively focuses on Capacity Construction and organization optimization, and exercises its internal skills, which is conducive to the improvement of the company's long-term performance. The gross profit margin and net profit of Q4 company have appeared in 2021.
Wait for the macro environment to pick up and the whole network express pattern to improve
With the continuous improvement of the online penetration of bulk express and the upgrading of China's manufacturing industry, the medium and high-end express track may usher in development opportunities in the future, waiting for the overall prosperity of the macro environment to pick up; In addition, with the merger and integration of the whole network express enterprises and the improvement of the whole network express market pattern, deppon, which is leading in service, is expected to benefit in the long term.
The profit forecast and investment rating are adjusted according to the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Deppon Logistics Co.Ltd(603056) 2021 to 2023 will be 29.653 billion yuan, 32.362 billion yuan and 34.723 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 145 million yuan, 507 million yuan and 643 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 75.13, 21.55 and 16.99 yuan respectively. Maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk tips: the repeated epidemic situation and the impact of power rationing have led to the lower than expected growth rate of the express industry, the intensification of the price war, the slowdown in the promotion of cost optimization, and the lower than expected synergy and scale effect
