\u3000\u3000 Sinocelltech Group Limited(688520) (688520)
Events
On January 28, 2022, the company announced that the company expects a revenue of 120-140 million yuan in 2021, which is the first product independently developed by the company. Recombinant human coagulation factor VIII for injection (trade name: angain, product code: sct800) was approved for listing in July 2021 and began to generate sales revenue continuously; The net loss attributable to the owner of the parent company is 850-880 million yuan, which is due to the large support of the company’s R & D expenses related to products under research, especially clinical research expenses. The performance was better than expected. comment
The reorganization of eight factors is the first in China, with sales of more than 100 million in several months. The new indications for children’s medication have been accepted, and the aftereffect can be expected. (1) The product is just in demand, and the commercialization process is better than expected. The first recombinant human coagulation factor VIII product independently developed by the company was approved to be listed in China on July 24, 2021. The national medical insurance code was obtained on August 12. The national medical insurance code was officially announced on August 30. The cumulative sales were 120-140 million yuan at the end of December. (2) ANGA has three core advantages: quality and stability, production capacity and cost. The product is the third generation recombinant human coagulation factor VIII product independently developed by the company, and the process and preparation do not contain albumin. The company has established high-efficiency and stable production engineering cell line, serum-free and protein-free suspension flow addition process, high-efficiency and high specificity downstream purification process with affinity purified antibody as the core step independently developed and produced, finished preparation formula without albumin additive and production line with 4000 liter cell culture scale. (3) The indications expand rapidly and the stamina can be expected. The company’s supplementary application for bleeding control and prevention indications of children with hemophilia A a (congenital coagulation factor VIII deficiency) was accepted in January 2022. The recombinant eight factor children’s drug market is growing rapidly. After being approved, the sales of ANGA will be accelerated again.
The 2.2 billion new drug R & D fund-raising and investment plan was approved as the first fixed increase in the pharmaceutical industry of the science and innovation board; Recombinant proteins and other products with high production barriers have been commercialized one after another, and a profit breakthrough is imminent. (1) The company’s fixed growth plan has been approved, and the Chinese and international clinical promotion of heavy products such as recombinant factor 8 and 14 price HPV will be accelerated. (2) We expect that the company’s revenue in the next three years will be mainly composed of recombinant factor 8 and CD20 monoclonal antibody (on-site verification has been completed), and its Chinese sales CAGR in recent eight years is as high as 30% and 16% respectively. It is expected that the company will achieve positive profits by the end of 2023 or 2024 (see our in-depth report for details).
Profit forecast and investment suggestions
According to the performance forecast of the company’s 2021 annual report, we raised the profit forecast: the company’s revenue in 2021 / 22 / 23 increased by 51% / 16% / 4% from 86 / 684 / 1934 million yuan to 130 / 79.9/2.01 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company increased by 6% / 16% / 13% from -9.3 / – 720 / – 76 million yuan to -8.8 / – 610 / – 66 million yuan respectively. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk
Risks such as the failure of R & D progress and commercialization process, the failure of fixed increase issuance and the lifting of the ban on restricted shares.
