\u3000\u3000 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 100-150 million, with a year-on-year decrease of 91.61% – 87.42%. It is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 20-70 million after deduction of non profits, with a year-on-year decrease of 98.09% – 93.33%. Among them, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 is 118 million yuan / 328 million yuan / 403 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 812% / – 8.7% / 13.7%, Q4 is expected to have a loss of 700 million yuan to 750 million yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q1 / Q2 / Q3 after deduction is 100 million yuan / 310 million yuan / 380 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 254% / 10% / 3%, and Q4 is expected to have a loss of 720 million yuan to 770 million yuan.
The provision for impairment of bulk receivables is sufficient, the bulk risks are fully realized, the strategy of “all channels, multi brands and all categories” is implemented, and the retail business is continuously invested. The sharp decline in the company’s profit in 2021q4 was mainly due to: (1) the company made provision for impairment losses on due receivables and commodities issued by bulk business customers. The credit impairment loss in 2021 is estimated to increase by 900 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, and the impairment provision is sufficient. As of December 31, 2021, the accounts receivable and commodities issued by bulk customers totaled 1.185 billion yuan, including 462 million yuan of accounts receivable, 341 million yuan of undue commercial acceptance bills, 352 million yuan of house purchase advance and 30.1632 million yuan of commodities issued. As of the first three quarters of 2021, the company’s bulk business accounted for 1.154 billion yuan of revenue, accounting for 16%. Retail business is still the core business. Looking forward to 22 years, the overall strategy of bulk business is to receive orders steadily, and customers with more payment ability are preferred in customer selection. (2) In the second half of the year, in the face of the rising price of raw materials, the sales price of the company’s products did not rise synchronously. At the same time, the company increased the support of dealers, and the gross profit margin decreased to a certain extent; (3) Focusing on the implementation of the strategy of “all channels, multi brands and all categories”, the company’s management expenses and advertising expenses are invested simultaneously.
Revenue exceeded the 10 billion mark and launched “whole family customization” products. The company expects to achieve an operating revenue of 10.02 billion yuan to 10.44 billion yuan in the whole year of 21 years, with an operating revenue of more than 10 billion yuan in 21 years, which is expected to increase by 20% – 25% year-on-year. The main reason is that the company’s omni-channel, multi brand and full category layout is improving day by day, and the packaging channel and Milana brand are developing rapidly. In December of 21, the company officially launched the “whole family customization” strategy, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brand positioning was upgraded from “cabinet customization expert” to “wardrobe | whole family customization”, the product category was more perfect, and the whole product was created with space solutions. Looking forward to 2022, in terms of products, Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brand released “whole family customized” products, taking the wardrobe as the entrance and extending the category to a far end. In terms of channels, Simi, Mumen and Milana continued to open stores, and Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) brands achieved growth through product renewal and channel expansion. In terms of marketing, empower the terminal team, establish a result oriented assessment system, and encourage dealers to make efforts in packaging, e-commerce and other channels.
Profit forecast and rating: considering the impact of impairment loss of receivables, the company is expected to realize net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.367/1.713 billion in 22 / 23 years (originally expected to be RMB 1.62/1.89 billion), respectively + 870% / + 25% year-on-year, and the corresponding PE is 14x / 12x respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the forecast data is only preliminary accounting data. The completion and delivery of new houses are less than expected, the real estate regulation policy is stricter, the horizontal competition is intensified, and the impact of the epidemic is stricter.
