\u3000\u3000 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
Key investment points
Evergrande accounts receivable are withdrawn in a high proportion, and the expense investment affects the profit margin of 21q4
The sharp decline on the profit side was mainly due to the company’s special credit impairment loss of 900 million (balance of receivables + issued goods of 1.185 billion) for Evergrande, which exceeded 76% and was close to the upper limit (the CSRC required Evergrande business companies to withdraw 20-80%), showing a one size fits all determination, and the 22-year forecast would be light.
From the perspective of reducing Evergrande’s impairment, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years was about 1-1.05 billion (down 12-16% year-on-year), of which Q4 was 150-200 million (down 59-69% year-on-year). The decline in profit margin was mainly due to: (1) the rise in the price of upstream raw materials, and the company did not raise the price of terminals in order to compete for market share; (2) The personnel expenses of the whole outfit and milanna new business department have increased, and there are more subsidies for dealers; (3) 21q4 company launched the whole customization, and some expenses were put in advance.
In the past 22 years, we have promoted the whole customization strategy, connected the points into lines, and brought in-depth marketing reform
Looking forward to the next 22 years, we expect the whole customization to boost retail growth: the whole customization strategy was released in December Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) of 21. The unit value of terminal customers has increased from the current 30000-40000 yuan to 60000 yuan in the C6 plan, moving forward from selling products to selling space. At present, terminal stores are being refreshed in an orderly manner. Enhance the executive power of internal management decisions, carry bags and pack new traffic channels; The enthusiasm of dealers has been substantially mobilized, and the training of marketing skills & playing methods has been increased, so as to be optimistic about the improvement of inbound passenger flow and conversion rate. In terms of channel sorting, it is expected that the dealers with strong strength in the first and second tier will mainly upgrade and rejuvenate their stores, while the low-end market is expected to recruit new merchants and open new stores in the whole customization mode. It is expected that the change will bring positive changes to the company’s business in 22q1.
Profit forecast and valuation
We believe that 22 years Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) will usher in an operating inflection point. The retail end will rely on the whole customization strategy of Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) and the pull of Milana light fashion brand. At the same time, the bulk business will stabilize and optimize the customer structure. We expect to achieve revenue of 10.224/121.96/14.536 billion respectively in 21-23 years, an increase of 22.4% / 19.29% / 19.19% at the same time; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 123 / 13.23 / 1.698 billion, with a year-on-year increase of – 89.68% / + 974.75% / + 28.34%. The current share price corresponds to the PE of 22-23 years, which is 14.97x / 11.66x. After Evergrande’s business weakens, it is expected that the company’s valuation is expected to be repaired and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: channel expansion failed to meet expectations, and real estate regulation exceeded expectations
