\u3000\u3000 Appotronics Corporation Limited(688007) (688007)
The company issued the performance forecast for 2021:
In the whole year: 190-245 million (YoY + 67% ~ + 115%), 95-135 million (YoY + 135% ~ + 235%) of non deduction Q4: 21-34 million (YoY turn loss ~ – 52%), 08-27 million (YoY turn loss ~ – 48%) of non deduction, the median value of performance forecast is lower than the market expectation, which is expected to be mainly due to ① the impact of equity incentive expenses; ② The promotion of peak rice Q4 has increased. ③ Income tax expense treatment.
Revenue side: the operation is normal and the expectation is basically in line with the expectation
The annual revenue of China and Thailand is expected to be about 2.5 billion (YoY + 103%), of which Q4 is about 800 million (YoY + 15%, mom + 45% – 50%). According to our expectation:
C-end: estimated to be about 400-500 million. Among them, we expect about 200 million private brands; Referring to the business consultant Q4, Taoxi fengmi has a sales volume of 114 million, yoy + 53%. Xiaomi is expected to decline.
Film: estimated at 150-200 million. According to cat’s eye statistics, the number of film viewers in 21q4 has returned to 90% in 20 years.
Other b-terminal & Devices: it is expected that there is little difference compared with Q3.
Profit: calculated by the disclosure center, it is lower than the market forecast, mainly due to equity incentive + sales expenses + tax impact
① calculation of 21-year equity incentive fee: it is estimated to be 18 million (announced in September 2019) + 30 million (announced in March 2021) + 05 million (announced in October 2021), a total of 53 million, and the impact of rate is expected to be about 2.2%, of which Q4 is expected to be about 17 million.
If looking forward to 22 years, if the performance appraisal is realized, the relevant expenses will be 07 million (1909) + 0.27 (2103) + 0.29 (2110), a total of 64 million. There is still some incentive cost pressure, but the impact on the rate is expected to drop to 1.5%.
② release of sales expenses. Fengmi Q4 releases new products intensively, and the corresponding necessary launch such as press conference is increased. It can also be seen that the company’s product promotion level continues to improve, and the C-end competitiveness continues to strengthen. However, due to the superposition of Q4 core shortage, the current sales transformation is limited.
③ income tax matters: Zhongying Guangfeng has obtained the high-tech certification, and the subsequent tax rate will be changed from 25% to 15%. The subsequent tax is expected to be optimized. However, this event affects the current deferred income tax assets and increases the current taxes.
Business outlook: continuous penetration of laser, promising future
Laser devices: partners continue to increase. Micro investment newly released cosmos4k; Laser TV cooperates with aura, AOC and other brands.
Own C-end: the 22 year micro investment product line is expected to be supplemented one after another. In 2022, the company’s laser micro investment SKU will continue to increase. At the same time, the pressure on the company will be reduced after the subsequent improvement of the chip, and the private brand is expected to achieve better growth rate. At present, the proportion of fengmi’s own brands is expected to continue to increase to 50%. The company’s profit structure will also continue to benefit with the increase of the proportion of private brands.
Vehicle vision: Huawei’s sky projection has been released, and more vehicle projection products are expected to be launched in the future.
Shareholding reduction: CITIC’s latest shareholding is 4.58%, and it plans to reduce its shareholding by 1% in three months (announcement 20220122), and Saifu’s shareholding is 4.38% (announcement 20211126).
Investment suggestion: buy rating.
The company’s original laser fluorescence display underlying technology ALPD has multiple application scenarios and low permeability. We believe that laser instead of LED projection is the general trend of the industry, and will continue to strengthen with the localization and cost reduction of upstream devices; As a laser advantage enterprise, Guangfeng will continue to benefit, and the vehicle is expected to open new application scenarios.
The profit forecast is adjusted due to short-term matters such as taxes and fees. It is estimated that 220 million, 340 million and 500 million will belong to the parent in 21-23 years (the former value belongs to 250 million, 350 million and 500 million), yoy + 92%, + 57% and 47%, corresponding to pe59, 37 and 26x.
Risk tip: the popularity of laser C-end is less than expected, the private brand is less than expected, and the industry competition is intensified
