\u3000\u3000 Chengdu Ald Aviation Manufacturing Corporation(300696) (300696)
The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 is expected to be + 83% ~ 90% year-on-year, achieving an unexpected growth, and the advantages of the whole process business are gradually reflected
The company released the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, it is expected to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 250-260 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 83% ~ 90%. It is expected to deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of 246-256 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 85.35% ~ 92.55%. The annual performance will achieve a higher than expected growth. We believe that the substantial improvement of the company's performance in 2021 is mainly due to the continuous and rapid growth of aviation equipment construction demand. On the one hand, the company's new production capacity of precision NC machining is released one after another. On the other hand, at the end of the industrial chain, the company is gradually realizing the transformation from a single process / model to a multi process with full military and civilian coverage, and the utilization rate of special process capacity of heat meter has increased steadily, The delivery and settlement of the component assembly business has begun, and the advantages of the whole process business of the company's aviation parts are gradually reflected. With the gradual expansion of multi process business in the industrial chain, the company's performance is expected to enter the track of rapid growth.
The company upgraded from single process / model to multi process and whole process business of military and civil aviation, or driven the rapid growth of performance
The company is striving to build the whole process business capability of aviation parts "CNC precision machining - special process processing - component assembly", which is in the process of steady progress, and has passed the review and confirmation of the main engine factory and relevant customers:
\u3000\u30001. CNC precision machining business: focus on the construction of key parts, important parts, complex parts and small batch flexible production capacity of aviation parts. The CNC intelligent manufacturing project of Xindu Branch / subsidiary has been put into operation in 2021 and is gradually releasing the CNC precision machining capacity.
\u3000\u30002. Special process business: the company raised funds to invest in the construction project of heat meter treatment and nondestructive testing production line in 2017, and began to carry out surface treatment business successively in the second half of 2019. From 2020 to 2021, the capacity utilization rate of special process of heat meter increased steadily. In 2021, the company actively expanded the heat treatment business of multiple varieties and models such as military / civil aviation and aviation, and upgraded the main production line facilities to optimize production efficiency and improve capacity utilization.
\u3000\u30003. Component assembly business of the Ministry: it has passed the review of military aircraft assembly qualification and obtained the approval of French SaiFeng landing gear assembly qualification. It has undertaken and successfully completed the assembly business of large parts of the middle fuselage of a certain UAV, as well as the matching business of three large parts of the front fuselage, middle fuselage and rear fuselage of the aircraft, realizing the upgrading of the whole process ability from part processing to large parts. At the same time, actively promote the upgrading and construction of the whole process management capacity of small components and large parts from "raw materials - machining - special process - assembly of components". In the field of precision machining, the company has mastered many core technologies such as high-precision blind hole machining and complex deep cavity machining, and is in an obvious advantageous position in the industry. On the client side, the company has won the title of "excellent supplier" issued by the aircraft manufacturing unit under AVIC for many times. It is the only strategic partner in the field of machining and heat treatment of a main engine factory under AVIC. We believe that as a comprehensive aviation manufacturing base of military and civil aircraft in China, the company is in the process of accelerating the upgrading from a single process / model to a multi process and whole process business of military and civil aviation. The relevant products of the company are expected to achieve rapid volume with the growth of demand, and the performance is expected to grow rapidly with this process.
Actively promote the work of raising investment and expanding production, and improve the level of intelligent manufacturing
In August 2021, the company raised a total amount of 500 million yuan to promote the construction of aviation parts intelligent manufacturing center project. In 2020, the company's theoretical NC processing capacity was 1129800 man hours, and the capacity utilization rate was 87%. The raised investment project is expected to increase the theoretical NC processing capacity by 1232000 man hours / year, and increase automation and intelligent systems such as automation equipment and control system, testing equipment automation and control system, Internet of things and control system. The construction period of the project is 2 years and the production period is 3 years. After the project is completed, it is expected to increase the annual revenue by 234 million yuan and the annual net profit by 60 million yuan. We believe that the implementation of the fixed raising and investment project will comprehensively improve the company's intelligent manufacturing level, enhance the company's core competitiveness and further expand the company's ability to undertake the business of domestic large aircraft, military main battle equipment and military UAV on the basis of expanding the company's existing business capacity.
Profit forecast and rating: To sum up, we believe that the company's military products business will fully benefit from the leapfrog equipment development process of the 14th five year plan, and is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next 3-5 years; Civil products business is expected to achieve further volume with the gradual landing of China's large aircraft projects. At the same time, considering the continuous promotion of the company's military and civilian full coverage, multi process and whole process layout, the performance is expected to grow rapidly on this basis. Under this assumption, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021-22 will be increased from 210 / 301 million yuan to 255 / 378 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2023 is predicted to be 514 million yuan, corresponding to PE of 45.65/30.83/22.67x. Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the risk of declining market competitiveness; Risk of fluctuations in the company's military products business; Risk of raw material supply; The risk that the progress and income of the raised investment project do not meet the expectations; The performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, and the specific financial data shall be subject to the disclosure announcement of the company.
