\u3000\u3000 Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) (002468)
Event:
Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) release the performance forecast for 2021:
In 2021, Shentong is expected to realize an operating revenue of 24.1 billion yuan to 26.5 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 11.75% to 22.88%; The net loss attributable to the parent company was 840 million yuan to 950 million yuan, with a profit of 36 million yuan in the same period last year; Deduct the net loss of non parent company from 880 million yuan to 970 million yuan, with a loss of 31 million yuan in the same period last year.
In 2021q4, Shentong is expected to achieve a net loss of 602 million yuan to 712 million yuan, with a profit of 31 million yuan in the same period last year; Deduct the net loss of non parent company from 568 million yuan to 658 million yuan, with a profit of 20 million yuan in the same period last year.
Key investment points:
The impairment of assets affects the performance of the whole year and is expected to be profitable in the fourth quarter after elimination
In 2021, Shentong is expected to realize a net loss attributable to the parent company of 840-950 million yuan, including the disposal and impairment of fixed assets of about 76 million yuan and the provision for the impairment of goodwill of assets such as acquisition transfer centers of about 700 million yuan. The related impairment and asset investment still put pressure on the company's annual performance. If the above asset impairment matters are excluded, the company's performance in the fourth quarter of 2021 is expected to be profitable.
The market share rebounded, and the capacity climbing helped to continuously optimize the cost
In 2021q4, the growth rate of the company's business volume rebounded rapidly. The year-on-year growth rates from October to December were 24.30%, 16.68% and 19.61% respectively, higher than the industry growth rate for three consecutive months. In December, the market share rebounded to 11.25%, a new high in 2021 and nearly 17 months. In 2021, Shentong implemented 47 capacity improvement projects to promote the capacity throughput to the daily average of 40 million units. However, in the first three quarters of 2021, due to the impact of site relocation, project completion delay and other factors, the overall single volume throughput scale is limited, resulting in high operating costs and low capacity utilization. In 2021q4, benefiting from the business volume overflow brought by the integration of Jitu and Baishi, Shentong actively adjusted its competitive strategy and promoted the simultaneous rise of volume and price by optimizing the market price policy on the basis of balancing market share and profitability. With the continuous growth of business volume, Shentong's capacity utilization gradually increased, the single ticket fixed cost gradually decreased, and the scale effect was reflected, The cost side is expected to be continuously optimized.
Seize the investment opportunities of the express industry and raise it to the "buy" rating
① the stability of the pattern has been verified, and the sector investment opportunities of the express industry have been grasped: in December 2021, several rounds of policies highlighted the determination of supervision. The price rise of the express industry has been implemented, and the stability of the pattern has been verified. Shentong's single ticket revenue reached 2.44 yuan in December 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 4.72%. It has achieved positive growth in single ticket revenue for two consecutive months. It is expected that the express business will be profitable in the fourth quarter. Looking forward to 2022, in addition to policy supervision, the head enterprises also have strong profit demands. Under the background of the stability of the demand side growth center, the capital expenditure scale of each head enterprise on the supply side will stop expanding, the proportion of capital expenditure in revenue will continue to decline, and the competitive strategy of head enterprises will focus on the balance between market share and profitability. Grasp the sector investment opportunities in the express industry. With the support of the improved pattern, Shentong single ticket revenue is expected to rebound and stabilize. With the continuous improvement of capacity utilization, Shentong's cost side is expected to be continuously optimized, and its performance will be gradually repaired, ushering in greater profit and market value elasticity.
② profit forecast and investment rating: adjust the profit forecast according to the company's performance forecast. It is estimated that the operating revenue from Sto Express Co.Ltd(002468) 2021 to 2023 will be 25.308 billion yuan, 30.609 billion yuan and 32.815 billion yuan respectively, the net profit attributable to the parent company will be -893 million yuan, 888 million yuan and 1139 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE from 2022 to 2023 will be 15.24 million yuan and 11.88 million yuan respectively. Upgrade to "buy" rating.
Risk tips: the growth rate of the industry is lower than expected, the price war is restarted, the management improvement is lower than expected, the cost control is lower than expected, and the franchisees have burst their positions
