\u3000\u3000 Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) (688256)
Performance review
It is difficult to improve the loss and increase the inventory risk: on January 28, the company predicted that the revenue in 2021 will be 670-750 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 46.0-63.4%, which is significantly higher than the 685 million revenue expected by wind analysts (49% Y / y). Although the revenue is higher than expected, the net loss attributable to the parent company will be 765-935 million yuan, and the company's predicted loss will expand by 76.1-115.2%, It was also significantly higher than the 784 million loss expected by wind analysts. The non deduction loss of the company's notice was 1.02-1.24 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.4-88.7%.
The shipment of edge computing product line is higher than expected: the company's attributed revenue is higher than expected. The implementation of 16nm Siyuan 220 edge computing chip and accelerator card in many head AI enterprises and its intelligent cluster system have a certain increase compared with the revenue of 326 million in 2020. We calculate that it is still more than half of the company's revenue.
R & D and management expenses are higher than expected: the company expects R & D expenses to be 1.044-1.276 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 35.9-66.1%, significantly higher than our previous expectation of 950 million yuan, mainly due to the active introduction of excellent talents and the increase of R & D personnel salary. The company expects that the share based payment expenses in the management expenses will increase to 198-242 million yuan, which is due to the amortization of the expenses of the equity incentive plan implemented by the end of 2020 and 2021.
Investment advice
Due to the higher than expected shipment of edge computing product line and the growth of intelligent cluster business, we revised the revenue forecast of 2021 by 21 points to 710 million yuan, an increase of 55% year-on-year. However, due to higher costs than expected, the net loss attributable to the parent company is expected to reach 856 million (an increase of 17%), we maintain the Cambricon Technologies Corporation Limited(688256) "overweight" rating and the target price of 88 yuan, and adjust the forecast of net loss attributable to the parent company in 2022 / 2023 from 660 million yuan / 620 million yuan to 720 million yuan (an increase of 9%) / 670 million yuan (an increase of 8%).
Risk tips
High valuation risk, terminal AI processor IP service reduction risk, intelligent computing cluster system business risk, horizontal competition risk, negative cash flow risk.
