\u3000\u3000 Orient Group Incorporation(600811) (600811)
Event: on January 29, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company will be - 1.3 to - 1.5 billion yuan and the net profit deducted from non net profit will be - 1.15 to - 1.35 billion yuan in 21 years.
The real estate sector dragged down the company's performance and the net profit fell sharply. The main reason for the change of the company's performance in this period is that the real estate business segment is expected to realize a net profit of about - 1.7 billion to - 1.9 billion in 2021, affecting the overall profit. The loss of the company's real estate business segment is mainly due to the provision of asset impairment loss and credit impairment loss for some inventories and other receivables by the company's subsidiary Guokai Dongfang Urban Development Investment Co., Ltd. in the reporting period, as well as the increase of financial expenses and the impact of changes in the fair value of investment real estate in the reporting period.
Continue to focus on the main business of grain and oil purchase and sales, and the real estate stripping may realize light loading. The company's core business is modern agriculture and healthy food industry. The operation is stable. The company will continue to focus on the development of its core business, rely on agricultural science and technology research and development and food research and development, expand agricultural high value-added industries and improve the overall performance of the company. In view of the current situation of the real estate development sector, the company will make every effort to revitalize and strip the existing land assets, recover the project investment, accelerate the realization of assets and reduce losses. We expect that the proportion of land and real estate development in revenue will further decline in the future to realize light loading.
After ten years of deep cultivation, Dongfang granary has built a development model of the whole industrial chain of modern agriculture. The company makes full use of the resource advantages of Northeast China's major grain province and the geographical advantages of national important commodity grain bases to widely carry out trade businesses such as grain transportation from north to south, grain reserve rotation, grain and oil purchase and sales, so as to ensure the effective supply of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) . Corn is the main category of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) purchased and sold by the company. Under the condition of continuous price rise, the company has sufficient corn inventory. Relying on the perfect storage and logistics system, it can ensure the demand of downstream customers for corn raw materials. Benefiting from the continuous rise of Shenzhen Agricultural Products Group Co.Ltd(000061) price, it is expected to welcome both volume and price.
Continue to promote the research and development of agricultural science and technology products, and the phase I project of high moisture plant meat was completed and put into operation in the third quarter. In December 2020, the company signed a cooperation agreement with the people's Government of Fangzheng County, Heilongjiang Province on the production project of high moisture plant meat. The first phase of the project has been officially completed and put into operation on July 30, 2021. The first phase of the project has an annual production and processing capacity of 5000 tons. At present, the formed product line includes plant protein meat dumplings, small crisp meat, meatballs, meat fillings and other rich categories. In the first half of 2021, the company accelerated the R & D and production technology of plant meat, and has obtained and applied for a total of 12 patents. At present, the company has developed 3 kinds of high moisture plant meat base products, 12 kinds of high moisture plant meat terminal products, and 5 kinds of high moisture plant meat terminal products in phase I. By August 2021, the company's high moisture plant meat project has been put into operation. The company has accurately grasped the core of the industrial chain and mastered advanced extrusion technology and equipment. Among them, the mature high wet process is now in the leading position in the industry and is expected to lead the development of China's artificial meat industry in the future.
Profit forecast: 21h1 we predict that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 266 / 361 / 487 million yuan. However, as the company's performance forecast was lower than expected, we lowered our profit forecast. It is expected that the company will achieve a revenue of 16.874/186.05/21.169 billion yuan from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 9.05% / 10.26% / 13.78%, a net profit of -13.15/219/336 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of -646.96% / 116.66% / 53.52%, and EPS of -0.35/0.06/0.09 yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating of the company.
Risk warning: food safety, raw material price fluctuation risk, real estate business revitalization and stripping are less than expected, the development of artificial meat is less than expected, and the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result. The specific financial data shall be subject to the disclosure announcement of the company.
