\u3000\u3000 Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) (603313)
Key investment points
American factories are climbing steadily and are optimistic about the return of orders in 22 years
We estimate that the company’s Q4 revenue side still has double-digit year-on-year growth in 21 years. Thanks to the continuous climbing of Meidong and Meixi factories, Meidong’s 21q3 is less than 3000 pieces / day → the Q4 peak can reach 4000 pieces / day and start to make profits. Meixi’s self foaming in November is less than 1000 pieces / day → it has reached 2000 pieces / day at present. It is expected to reach the breakeven point soon. The second anti-dumping brought about a gap of about US $600-700 million in the supply side of the United States. In 21 years Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) failed to get more increment due to delivery problems. However, after the release of the production capacity of American factories in 22 years, relying on the advantage of the company’s quotation side over its local competitors in the United States, it is optimistic that the orders will flow back to Healthcare Co.Ltd(603313) and drive the high increase of income in the United States.
China’s retail channels have expanded rapidly and continued to increase investment in 22 years
In terms of Chinese business, the company pays attention to the cultivation of consumers’ habit of using memory cotton mattresses, and improves brand awareness through omni-channel promotion. It is expected that the number of the company’s own brand mlily stores will exceed 1100 by the end of 21 (in addition, there are more than 200 langlefu cooperative stores), and the company will maintain the opening plan of 600 + stores in 22 years, and the offline retail business is expected to grow by 60-80%. The zero pressure room business of henglv will also be promoted in 22 years. It has not shown any performance due to the disturbance of the epidemic in 20-21 years. However, the company plans to launch a new marketing method to promote the linkage between consumers, hotels and the company.
The profitability is expected to improve steadily in 22 years and release the performance elasticity
The three mountains of raw materials, sea freight and plant efficiency on the profit side of the company in 21 years are expected to continue to weaken in TDI / MDI / polyether and other raw materials in 22 years. The sea freight is expected to fluctuate at a high level. After the capacity climbs, the profitability of each plant improves, and it is optimistic that the profit margin of the company will be repaired upward quarter by quarter. We are optimistic about the reversal of the company’s plight in 22 years, the two wheel drive revenue of overseas ODM + China’s independent retail business has increased by 20-30%, and the profitability has improved after the alleviation of multiple adverse factors.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company to achieve revenue of RMB 8.338 billion, 10.58 billion and 12.95 billion from 2021 to 2023, with a year-on-year increase of 27.69%, 26.88% and 22.41%; The net profit of PE in 2022 is expected to return to + 2.3 billion yuan and + 2.3 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit of PE in 2022 is expected to return to – 2.32 billion yuan. Considering that the company’s share price has been at the bottom and the long-term growth path is still clear, maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: the recovery of overseas epidemic did not meet expectations, and the price of raw materials rose sharply
