\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) (688159)
Event: on January 29, Shenzhen Neoway Technology Co.Ltd(688159) released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the operating revenue in 2021 will be about 1.03 billion yuan, an increase of about 456 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of about 79%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is about - 6 ~ - 3 million yuan, which will increase by about 69 ~ 72 million yuan compared with the same period of last year, with a year-on-year change of about 92% - 96%.
The profitability of the company has been significantly improved. It is estimated that the company's revenue in 2021q4 will be about 345 million yuan, an increase of about 143.8% year-on-year in 2020q4 and 26.7% month on month compared with 272 million yuan in 2021q3; The net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 is about 4.31 ~ 7.31 million yuan, which is significantly improved from - 34 million yuan in 2020q4. We believe that the significant improvement of the company's revenue and profit level is mainly due to the fact that the company's early strategic layout in the multi scene bearing field has finally blossomed and bear fruit, and the company is expected to enter the rapid growth channel in the enterprise life cycle.
The gross profit margin continues to improve, and the growth can be expected after the external disturbance is gradually cleared. In the past two years, the company was most seriously affected by the epidemic. In 2020, the company was disturbed by the global covid-19 epidemic. At the same time, the company's gross profit margin was greatly affected by external factors such as the shortage of chips in the industry. In 2021, the supply of raw materials such as upstream chips is still relatively tight, resulting in large fluctuations in the purchase price of raw materials. At the same time, affected by the tight supply of semiconductor chips in the automotive industry, it has brought certain pressure on the downstream demand of the company, and the operating income of overseas Internet of vehicles terminals with high gross profit margin has not been significantly increased. However, the overall gross profit margin of the company in the whole year is still higher than that in 2020. It is expected that the gross profit margin of the company is expected to continue to improve month on month with the easing of chip supply in the future.
The business and product layout conform to the "14th five year plan" and open up a new growth space for the company. The 14th five year plan provides clear guidelines for the construction of smart energy, including that the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid will increase investment in power distribution network during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the "double carbon" goal of the State Council and the policy of promoting distributed photovoltaic pilot in the whole county of the National Energy Administration, so as to promote the development of distributed photovoltaic power generation and energy storage The Ministry of water resources increased investment in smart water conservancy and national water network during the 14th Five Year Plan period. The company complied with the key layout in the field of smart energy in the 14th five year plan, and achieved substantial growth in power, water and gas, of which the revenue of the power industry accounted for the largest proportion. With the effective control of covid-19 epidemic in China, the demand for centralized power reading has resumed; At the same time, the State Grid and China Southern Power Grid have increased their investment in distribution network, driving the demand for the installation of distribution network networking equipment; The continuous development of power markets in Europe, the Middle East and other regions is expected to bring new increment. The company's in-depth layout in the field of smart energy, combined with the full volume of overseas Internet of vehicles terminals, Chinese front mounted modules, laptop modules and other products in 2022, as well as the commercial expansion of urban IOT sensing platform in the new infrastructure, is expected to fully open the growth space of the company.
Investment suggestion: the company continued to make profits from 2021q2 to Q4, and its operation improved as a whole. It is estimated that the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be about - 04 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2022 to 2023 is expected to reach 100 million yuan and 221 million yuan respectively, with PE of 25X and 11x respectively. Select Quectel Wireless Solutions Co.Ltd(603236) and Fibocom Wireless Inc(300638) as comparable companies, and the average PE in 22 years will be 40x (wind unanimously expected), which is optimistic about the company's performance repair. Maintain a "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: product R & D is less than expected, vehicle import is less than expected, and industry competition intensifies.
