\u3000\u3000 Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) (300888)
Events
The company disclosed the performance forecast for 2021. In 2021, the main business income was 7.9-8.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 34.07% - 36.48%, an increase of 75.07% - 81.72% over 2019; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 1.20-1.35 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 64.57% - 68.51%, an increase of 119.66% - 147.12% over 2019; Deduct non net profit of RMB 1.00-1.15 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 69.34% - 73.34%, an increase of 108.14% - 139.36% over 2019.
Key investment points
The decline in the volume and price of medical protection products made the revenue performance of 21 years decline significantly year-on-year, and the decline in the fourth quarter narrowed month on month. On the revenue side, the company expects to realize the main business income of 7.9-8.2 billion yuan in 21 years. According to the performance forecast center, the main business income of 8.05 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 35.77% and an increase of 75.97% over the same period in 19 years; Quarter by quarter, the revenue of 21q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 was RMB 2.269 billion, 1.791 billion, 1.760 billion and 2.230 billion respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 52.97%, - 33.58%, - 67.06% and - 25.93%. On the net profit side, the company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.20-1.35 billion yuan in 21 years. According to the performance forecast center, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 1.275 billion yuan in 21 years, a year-on-year decrease of 66.54%, an increase of 133.39% over the same period in 19 years; Quarterly, the net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 was RMB 481 million, 280 million, 343 million and 171 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 50.74%, - 60.69%, - 83.80% and - 74.11%.
Medical consumables: the high base has led to the decline in the income of OEM business for the export of epidemic prevention materials, and the development of B2B China Hospital direct sales and B2C business is good. In 2021, the company's medical consumables business (including cotton Spunlaced non-woven fabric, the same below) achieved a revenue of 3.9-4 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 55.16% - 56.28%. The revenue of medical consumables business accounted for about 49%, which was significantly lower than that in 2020 (71%), but higher than that in 2019 (32%). Taking the performance forecast center as 3.95 billion yuan, the revenue of medical consumables business decreased by 55.72% year-on-year, mainly due to the significant increase in the production capacity of medical protection products around the world in 2021 and the gradual return of sales prices to normal, resulting in a significant decrease of 70% in the company's medical consumables export OEM business revenue year-on-year; However, thanks to the improvement of "winner Winner Medical Co.Ltd(300888) " brand awareness and reputation, the sales channels of medical consumables tend to be diversified. In 2021, the sales channels of Chinese hospitals benefited from the rapid penetration of disposable surgical bags and surgical consumables products, and the revenue increased by about 10%. In addition, the company entrusted e-commerce, chain drugstores, small programs and other channels to develop TOC business, Increase the expansion of medical consumer goods categories, from the original respiratory protection, wound care, disinfection and cleaning categories to oral care, adult incontinence care and other categories. The proportion of C-end business is gradually increased. It is estimated that the proportion of C-end business in medical consumables business is close to 27%, of which the sales revenue of e-commerce channels increased by about 55% year-on-year.
Consumer goods for healthy living: in 2021, the consumer goods business showed resilience, and the official website / applet channel performed well. In 2021, the company's healthy living consumer goods business achieved a revenue of 4-4.2 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 13.73% - 19.42%, accounting for about 51%. Taking the performance forecast center of 4.1 billion yuan, the healthy living consumer goods business increased by 16.57% year-on-year, 35.26% compared with 2019. The year-on-year growth of 21q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4 were 40.38%, 7.86%, 10.30% and 15.87% respectively, and the growth rate in the fourth quarter increased month on month. In terms of channels, the company's health consumer goods are mainly sold online, accounting for about 60% of its online revenue. Its own online platforms (official websites and small programs) effectively improve the conversion rate and repurchase rate of new customers through content community and member operation. In 2021, the revenue increased by 40% year-on-year, which was higher than the 30% growth rate in the first three quarters of 21 years. Tmall, the third-party e-commerce platform JD's revenue was flat year-on-year; Offline, thanks to the overall effective control of the epidemic in China, the number of offline stores of the company increased steadily in 2021. The cotton era has penetrated into the second and third tier cities through franchise stores. As of the end of September 21, the company has opened 53 new stores, and it is expected that about 80 new stores will be opened in the whole year. In 2021, the expansion of the company's stores and the optimization of floor efficiency will increase the offline channel revenue by about 30% year-on-year.
Investment suggestion: considering the normalization of the epidemic situation and the return of the volume and price of medical protection products to normal, combined with the company's performance forecast, we lowered the profit forecast. It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.275, 1.546 and 1.856 billion yuan, with earnings per share of 2.99, 3.63 and 4.35 yuan respectively. The closing price on January 28 corresponds to about 20 times of the company's 22-year PE, maintaining the "Buy-A" proposal.
Risk tip: the price of cotton fluctuated sharply, the business expansion of medical consumables in China was less than expected, and the store expansion in the cotton era was less than expected.
