\u3000\u3000 Btg Hotels (Group) Co.Ltd(600258) (600258)
Key investment points:
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company in 2021 will be 45 million yuan to 65 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company after deducting non recurring profits and losses will be 8 million yuan to 12 million yuan.
Comments:
Q4 net profit attributable to the parent company is transferred from profit to loss. The company expects to realize the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company from 45 million yuan to 65 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 54.101 million yuan to 56.101 million yuan; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non recurring profits and losses was 8 million yuan to 12 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 535.5 million yuan to 539.5 million yuan. It is estimated that the net loss attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 will range from 60 million yuan to 80 million yuan, and will change from profit to loss in 2021q3. The northern region of 2021q4 is seriously affected by covid-19 scattered epidemic. Superimposed on the preparatory stage of Beijing Winter Olympics, the epidemic prevention policy is tightened, which has a great impact on the operation of the company.
Speed up the opening of new hotels under the asset light mode. In 2021q1-3, the company has 833 newly opened hotels, of which only 17 are directly operated hotels. The franchise mode helps the company expand rapidly. In 2021, the company expects to open more than 1400 new hotels, including 184, 324 and 325 new hotels from Q1 to Q3, and more than 567 new hotels in Q4. The number of new hotels has increased again. By the end of 2021, the company has reserved more than 1600 hotels, and is expected to maintain a rapid opening in 2022.
Upgrading of brand structure. By the end of the third quarter of 2021, the company had 5455 hotels and 457300 hotel rooms. Among them, there are 2339, 1312 and 1264 economy hotels, medium and high-end hotels and light management hotels respectively, with a decrease of 124, an increase of 147 and 489 compared with 2020. The proportion of medium and high-end hotel brands and cloud hotel brands of the company has gradually increased, and the brand structure has been upgraded to the medium and high-end level.
Solve the problem of horizontal competition. The wholly-owned subsidiary of the company signed a 4-year and 11 month service management contract with Liangmahe building, which is wholly controlled by the controlling shareholder ShouLv group, and is expected to charge a management fee of about 5.17 million yuan. With a total amount of 86.218 million yuan, Beijing Shangyuan Hotel, which is wholly controlled by the controlling shareholder ShouLv group, is leased for 10 years for hotel operation to solve the problem of horizontal competition.
Investment suggestion: under the influence of the local Chinese New Year and the Winter Olympics, the epidemic prevention policy in the northern region has become stricter, which has a great impact on the company's performance, resulting in Q4 net profit turning from profit to loss, and the company's net profit forecast for 2021-2022 has been reduced. The company is still optimistic about the speed of opening stores and structural upgrading for a long time. It is expected that the earnings per share of the company from 2021 to 2022 will be 0.05 yuan and 0.90 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE of the current stock price will be 503 times and 28.37 times respectively, maintaining the "recommended" rating of the company.
Risk tips: intensified industry competition, policy changes, less than expected new stores, macroeconomic downturn, repeated epidemics, etc.
