\u3000\u3000 Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (603501)
The semiconductor product design business of Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) company is mainly composed of three business systems: image sensor solutions (the most important product is CMOS image sensor chip), touch and display solutions and simulation solutions. Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) recently disclosed the performance forecast. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in 2021 will be 4.46 billion to 4.86 billion, an increase of 1.76 billion to 2.16 billion yuan compared with the same period of last year, a year-on-year increase of 65.13% to 79.91%.
Core assumptions for future business:
1. It is estimated that the global shipment of smart phones will be 1.41 billion in 2021, with an average of 4.2 image sensors per mobile phone. The growth rate of global mobile phone CIS market in 2021 and 2022 is about 15% and 10%. Corresponding to the operating revenue of global CIS in the mobile phone industry of about 105.1 billion yuan and 115.6 billion yuan in 2021 and 2022, Howell technology's market share in the global mobile phone industry CIS is expected to be 12% in 2021 (an increase of 2% market share month on month), and the revenue is about 12.6 billion yuan. It is estimated that the market share of Howell technology in CIS of the global mobile phone industry in 2021 will be 13% (an increase of 1% market share month on month).
2. In 2020, the global car camera market demand was about 320 million, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%. It is estimated that in 2021, the global shipment of new energy vehicles will be 6 million units (potential demand of 60 million cameras), and the shipment of traditional vehicles (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) will be 79.77 million units (320 million), with a total demand of 380 million; In 2022, the global shipment of new energy vehicles was 11.5 million units (potential demand of 115 million cameras), and the shipment of traditional vehicles (passenger cars and commercial vehicles) was 77.75 million units (330 million), with a total demand of 445 million, with a year-on-year increase of 17%.
According to the calculation of the price of a single camera at 30 yuan, the global car camera market will reach 11.1 billion yuan in 2021 and 13 billion yuan in 2022.
According to the prediction of 20% market share of Howell technology's global automotive camera market in 2020, it is expected that with the acceleration of localization and replacement of Shanxi Guoxin Energy Corporation Limited(600617) automotive chips and their own accelerated production, the global market share is expected to exceed 30% in the next three years.
3. The security market demand of CMOS image sensor (CIS) in the world continues to grow. The security direction accounted for 12.01% in 2019 and 16.36% in the whole CIS market in 2020, with a year-on-year growth rate of 36.22%.
In 2020, the global shipment of CMOS image sensors in the field of security was 230 million. According to the data of icinsights, the shipment volume in 2021 and 2022 is expected to be 270 million and 310 million respectively. According to the calculation of 50 yuan per piece, the market scale of CMOS image sensors in the global security field will be 13.8 billion in 2021 and 2022, and 17.9 billion in 2022.
In 2020, Howell technology has a market share of 29%. It is estimated that the market share will be 32% in 2021 and 37% in 2022. It is estimated that the revenue contributed by the security field in 2021 and 2022 will be 4.424 billion yuan and 6.649 billion yuan respectively.
Profit forecast:
It is estimated that the growth rate of the company's revenue in 2021 and 2022 will be 36.93% and 39% respectively, with a revenue scale of 27.1 billion and 37.7 billion. Benefiting from the continuous high growth of CMOS sensor business, the profit growth rate of the company in 2021 and 2022 was 71% and 43.5% respectively, and the profit scale was 4.62 billion and 6.64 billion respectively. PE multiples are expected to be 49.6x and 34.6x in 2021 and 2022 respectively. For Will Semiconductor Co.Ltd.Shanghai(603501) (603501), maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: policy risk, profit less than expected risk
