\u3000\u3000 Jiangsu New Energy Development Co.Ltd(603693) (603693)
Introduction: new energy power generation industry with multi type project layout
The company is a local state-owned enterprise, mainly engaged in the investment, development, construction and operation of new energy projects. As of December 31, 2021, the company has a holding installed capacity of 1.556 million KW and an equity installed capacity of 1.316 million KW. Its business layout covers three types of new energy projects: wind power, photovoltaic and biomass power generation. The company's revenue scale increased with the expansion of installed capacity. In the first three quarters of 2021, the operating revenue was 1.361 billion, a year-on-year increase of 14.28%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company was 391 million, a year-on-year increase of 11.43%.
The dual carbon goal accelerates the transformation of energy and power, and the high-quality business structure promotes growth
The company is backed by Jiangsu Guoxin group and plans three new energy power generation businesses at the same time, which is expected to deeply benefit from the wave of accelerated energy transformation under the "double carbon goal", and the installed capacity is expected to continue to expand during the "14th five year plan" period; At the same time, the business structure of the company is excellent and the key points are prominent. At present, the company has an installed capacity of 1.349 million kw of wind power, 115000 kW of biomass power generation and 92000 kW of photovoltaic power generation. From the perspective of gross profit contribution, it has formed a business structure with wind power as the core and photovoltaic as the second. The "performance burden" is about to be removed, the profitability continues to improve and the growth potential is significant.
Photovoltaic sea breeze makes concerted efforts, and the growth space of the company is opened
It is expected that the installed capacity of PV business will continue to be optimized and the installed capacity structure will be greatly improved. Photovoltaic "parity" is accelerated. Relying on its excellent cost control ability, the company will focus on photovoltaic power generation projects inside and outside the province in 2021. The total installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation projects currently being promoted is expected to exceed 470000 kW, more than five times the existing photovoltaic power generation scale. The proportion of photovoltaic business of the company is expected to increase significantly, so as to further improve the business structure, Driving the continuous improvement of gross profit margin.
Offshore wind power: its growth is prominent, and the company has become a "pioneer of offshore wind". The company's newly-built Jiangsu Rudong h2# offshore wind power project has been put into operation, with an installed capacity of 350000 kW. At the same time, the company acquired 40% equity of Datang Guoxin Binhai, and fully accumulated experience in the construction and operation of offshore wind power projects. Relying on the first mover advantage, the company has now selected Dafeng 850000 kW offshore wind power project. With the advantages of project construction resources in Jiangsu Province, the company is expected to become a "pioneer" in the field of offshore wind power.
Onshore wind power: the company enjoys cost reduction bonus and rapid expansion of business scale. The cost of wind power projects decreased, and its dividends were transferred to operators. In 2020, the installed capacity of onshore wind electric control unit of the company was 999000 kW, with an annual compound growth rate of 12.5%, and the business scale expanded rapidly; In addition, the company has the advantage of geographical location, stronger power consumption capacity, further reducing costs, higher gross profit margin and stronger profitability of the company's wind power business.
Profit forecast and Valuation: it is estimated that the company will realize operating revenue of RMB 1.79 billion, RMB 2.53 billion and RMB 2.75 billion from 2021 to 2023, and net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 310 million, RMB 890 million and RMB 980 million. Give the company 25 times of the 2022 target PE and the target price of 32.5 yuan, and give a "buy" rating.
Risk tip: due to the change of new energy policy in Jiangsu Province, the power consumption capacity of the project location is insufficient, the construction of new photovoltaic projects is less than expected, the operation of new offshore wind power projects is less than expected, the promotion of successful projects is less than expected, and the company has experienced stock price changes recently.
