\u3000\u3000 Byd Company Limited(002594) (002594)
Event overview
On February 6, the company released the production and marketing express of January 2022. In January, the company sold 95422 cars wholesale, with a year-on-year increase of + 125.0% and a month on month increase of - 3.7%. Among them, there were 93168 new energy vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 361.7% and a month on month increase of - 0.8%; 2254 fuel vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of - 89.9% and a month on month increase of - 56.4%. Meanwhile, the company's total installed capacity of new energy vehicle power batteries and energy storage batteries in January was about 4.770gwh, with a year-on-year increase of + 171.9% and a month on month increase of - 5.5%.
Analysis and judgment:
The monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high
The monthly sales of new energy passenger vehicles reached a new high and continued to increase month on month since February 2021. In January 2022, the sales volume of the company's new energy passenger vehicles was 92926, with a year-on-year increase of + 367.6% and a month on month increase of + 0.1%. Due to the impact of the Spring Festival and December impulse, January is a relatively off-season for new energy. While the company has increased significantly year-on-year, it still maintains a positive growth month on month, highlighting the strong demand driven by strong product power. We expect that the core shortage will gradually ease after the Spring Festival, and the demand release is expected to accelerate.
Pure electric + hybrid two wheel drive, the product heat continues to rise. The company's pure electric + plug-in hybrid two wheel drive, with a significant increase in sales. In January 2022, the company sold 46386 pure electric vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of + 220.7% and a month on month increase of - 4.0%; The sales volume of hybrid vehicles was 46540, with a year-on-year increase of + 760.6% and a month on month increase of + 4.6%. In January, song and Qin, including pure electric and hybrid, sold 22449 and 26542 vehicles respectively, and the product heat continued to rise. We believe that the company's DM-I hybrid is expected to accelerate the replacement of fuel vehicles, and pure electric will usher in secondary growth under the new model cycle and high-end route.
Flagship model selling dolphin broke ten thousand again
Flagship models continue to sell well, and the brand has achieved remarkable results in high-end. The flagship model Han continues to be popular, with sales exceeding 10000 for five consecutive months. In January 2022, the sales volume of Han reached 12780, of which the sales volume of Han EV was 10050, ranking the top 1 of pure electric medium and large cars; The sales volume of Han DM is 2730. Since the listing of Han, the cumulative sales volume has exceeded 170000, and the company has achieved remarkable results in the high-end market of medium and large cars with more than 200000 yuan.
Since the launch of dolphins, monthly sales have continued to rise, and the introduction of new products of ocean family is expected to accelerate. As the first model of e-platform 3.0, the sales volume of pure electric new species dolphin reached 10602 in January 2022, and the monthly sales have continued to grow since its listing. We believe that with strong products entering the huge market of small pure electricity, dolphin sales are expected to increase rapidly.
Platform based capability, continuous verification, model introduction and accelerated realization
Continuous verification of the company's platform capability. The company pays attention to R & D and has a deep accumulation of platform technology. DM-I platform achieved a new breakthrough in power loss and fuel consumption, accelerated the replacement of fuel vehicles, and many models sold well to verify the platform ability. E platform 3.0 focuses on improving efficiency. Equipped with "black technology" such as eight in one electric powertrain and wide temperature range high-efficiency heat pump, it can increase the low-temperature endurance by up to 20%. The sales volume of dolphin, the first mass-produced model of the platform, has continued to rise five months after its listing, and the company's strategy of building fist products based on technology has been continuously recognized by the market.
The introduction of models accelerates the realization, and the annual DM-I is expected to reach 1 million. This year, DM-I models will continue to expand and accelerate the introduction of platform models. Song Pro DM-I was launched last month, and a variety of models of warship series will be launched soon. Other DM models will also be equipped with DM-I and inject new increment. We expect the sales volume of DM-I to reach 1 million in the whole year. The first pure electric SUV yuan plus of E platform 3.0 will also be pre sold on New Year's day this year, and a variety of models of Ocean series will also be on the market. We believe that with the continuous output of the models of the two platforms, the company's platform capability will quickly enter the harvest period from the verification period.
Investment advice
The company relies on DM - I and E3 0 two advanced technology platforms, the iteration speed of models and the probability of popular models have been significantly improved, and the inflection point of new production capacity and new models is imminent. At the same time, the company's supply chain security capability has repeatedly been tested by industrial force majeure and has successfully demonstrated strong stability, which can better cope with the tight supply of upstream components and batteries with the continuous listing of new models and the arrival of the peak season of the industry demand side. The company is facing the inflection point of sales growth. We maintain the last profit forecast unchanged. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2292.3/2789.4/333.84 billion yuan, the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.07/81.1/11.96 billion yuan, the corresponding EPS will be 1.74/2.79/4.11 yuan, the corresponding closing price of 226.8 yuan / share on January 28, 2022, and the PE will be 130 / 81 / 55 times respectively, maintaining the overweight rating.
Risk tips
Capacity expansion is lower than expected; Downside risk of auto market; Sales of new models fell short of expectations.
