\u3000\u3000 Sinoma Science & Technology Co.Ltd(002080) (002080)
The company issued 21fy performance forecast. The net profit attributable to the parent company of 21fy is expected to be 3.26-3.88 billion, yoy + 60% ~ 90%; We estimate that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is 620-1.23 billion, qoq-23% ~ 53% (the median value is 920 million, QoQ + 15%). 21fy net profit deducted from non attributable parent is expected to be 2.53-3.07 billion, yoy + 40% ~ 70%; We estimate that 21q4 deduction of non attributable net profit is 210-750 million, qoq-73% ~ 0% (median 480 million, qoq-36%). And basically meet our market expectations.
21q4 it is expected that the performance of glass fiber and blade will be under pressure, and the diaphragm material will continue to improve month on month
For the glass fiber business, combined with the characteristics of rigid full load production, the effective capacity of 21q4 company is expected to increase slightly month on month (the production capacity of 100000 tons of manzhuang line 9 is expected to increase to a certain extent due to the ignition of 21 / 09, and the production capacity of 21q4 roving is basically unchanged). The overall sales volume of 21q4 glass fiber is expected to increase slightly month on month. Considering the cost changes such as natural gas, we expect that the unit production cost of 21q4 company will also increase month on month. Roving prices 21q4 were roughly flat on a month on month basis, and electronic yarn prices were subject to more adjustments. Overall, we expect the company’s 21q4 glass fiber business net profit deduction to drop slightly month on month.
For the blade business, the bidding price of wind power complete machine has fallen more in 21 years, and the multi links of wind power parts (including blades) are facing great pressure of price reduction. The price of wind power yarn at the superimposed cost side is generally upward. We speculate that the unit net profit of 21q4 blade is further under pressure, and the benefit of blade business may still need to be improved.
For diaphragm business, new production lines have been put into operation and climbing. It is expected that the production and sales will increase steadily and the scale effect will gradually take effect. We expect that the performance of 21q4 diaphragm business will continue to improve month on month.
Continue to be optimistic about the transformation prospect of the company’s new material platform
At this stage, the company has formed three mature business segments: glass fiber yarn and products, wind power blades and lithium battery diaphragm. At the same time, high-pressure negative composite gas cylinders, membrane materials and other composite materials also have some highlights. Around the strategic emerging industry direction of new energy / new materials / energy conservation and emission reduction, the layout of new material platform is beginning to take shape. The glass fiber industry has strong advantages in capacity scale, cost control and product portfolio (continuously enrich the layout of product links, such as the announcement of the proposed 12000 ton glass fiber filter paper production line and 4000 ton high silica glass fiber product production line on 21 / 12). The demand has grown, and the high prosperity of the material industry has continuity. The blade business makes every effort to promote the “two seas” strategy. The layout of production bases (it was announced on 21 / 12 that it plans to establish Brazilian blades and invest in the construction of wind power blade manufacturing base, which is the first overseas production base of blades), large blade technical reserves and R & D and self supply of raw materials of wind power yarn have good advantages, and the medium and long-term growth is worth looking forward to. The diaphragm business has made steady breakthroughs in customer expansion, firmly promoted the improvement of production capacity (the production capacity is expected to exceed 1.5 billion square meters at the end of 21fy, about 1 billion square meters are under construction in Nanjing, and 720 million square meters are planned to be newly invested and built in Inner Mongolia in the announcement of 21 / 12) and cost optimization. The prospect of diaphragm business is worth looking forward to. In addition, other emerging business prospects also deserve attention. We are optimistic about the transformation prospect of the company to a new material platform.
Maintain profit forecast and “buy” rating
Three mature businesses (glass fiber, wind power and lithium diaphragm) support the transformation prospect of the company to a new material platform. We maintain the previous performance forecast. It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to the parent company will be 34.7/39.8/4.88 billion and yoy + 69% / 15% / 23% respectively from 21 to 23. With reference to the valuation of comparable companies, we maintain the company’s 20×22 target PE, corresponding to the target price of 47.42 yuan, and maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk tip: glass fiber supply exceeds expectations; The installed capacity of wind power is less than expected; Lithium film customer development and cost reduction are lower than expected; And China Jushi Co.Ltd(600176) asset integration landing uncertainty; The forecast data is the preliminary calculation results, and the specific data is subject to the annual report of 2021.
