\u3000\u3000 Chongqing Zhifei Biological Products Co.Ltd(300122) (300122)
Release the employee stock ownership plan, strive for common prosperity and stimulate the enthusiasm of employees. The company issued an employee stock ownership plan, covering a total of no more than 2000 core employees, including 14 directors, supervisors and senior executives. The total amount of funds raised by employees is no more than 1.6 billion yuan, the ratio of financing to self financing is no more than 1:1, and the upper limit of product scale is no more than 3.2 billion yuan. According to the stock price on January 30, the employee stock ownership plan holds about 1.89% of the total share capital of the company. The lock-in period of ESOP is 12 months. The ESOP has a large capital scale and wide coverage, which helps to fully stimulate the enthusiasm of employees.
The penetration rate of HPV vaccine is low and will continue to grow rapidly. From 2017 to 2021, the total number of HPV vaccine batches issued in China exceeded 60 million, and only about 20 million people completed the whole process of immunization. The number of female target population aged 9-45 in China reached 380 million, with a penetration rate of only about 5%. From the actual vaccination situation, HPV vaccine is still in short supply, especially the 4 / 9 Price HPV vaccine still needs a long time to wait. It is estimated that after the HPV vaccination rate of school-age women in China is increased, the industry still has great room for development.
The self-developed product pipeline enters the harvest period. Recombinant protein covid-19 vaccine is the first one approved to be listed in the technical route. According to the company’s annual performance forecast in 2021, we expect to contribute a net profit of 5.5-6 billion yuan in 2021. The micro card pipeline of TB EC diagnostic reagent + preventive biological products is exclusive to China. It is in the market introduction period in 2021 and is expected to enter the mass production stage from 2022. Diploid crazy vaccine, tetravalent influenza vaccine and AC Hib triple vaccine will be applied for production soon. Phase 3 clinical trials of 15 valent pneumonia conjugate vaccine, bivalent dysentery conjugate vaccine and other products are being carried out, and heavy self-developed products have entered the harvest period one after another.
Profit forecast and investment rating: if the contribution increment of covid-19 vaccine performance is not considered, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be RMB 4.784/64.11/7.638 billion respectively from 2021 to 2023, and the corresponding PE is 35 / 26 / 22 times respectively.
Risk factors: the risk that the issuance or sale of product approval is less than expected, the progress of product research and development is less than expected, and the risk of covid-19 epidemic uncertainty.
