\u3000\u3000 Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) (002572)
Event: Suofeiya Home Collection Co.Ltd(002572) release the performance forecast for 2021. The company expects to achieve a revenue of 10.02 ~ 10.44 billion yuan in 2021, an increase of 20% ~ 35%, a net profit attributable to the parent company of 100 ~ 150 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 91.6% to – 87.4%, and a deduction of non net profit of 20 ~ 70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 98.1% to – 93.3%; In a single quarter, the company expects to achieve a revenue of 2.78 ~ 3.2 billion yuan in 21q4, a year-on-year increase of – 14.7% to – 1.9%, a net profit attributable to the parent of – 750 to – 700 million yuan, and a net profit deducted from non net profit of – 830 to – 780 million yuan.
A high proportion of bill impairment is accrued, which can be adjusted and loaded lightly. According to the performance forecast, the company’s credit impairment loss in 2021 is expected to increase by about 900 million yuan compared with the same period last year (the year-end balance of receivables and goods issued to a customer totals 1.185 billion yuan). Excluding the impact of credit impairment loss, the forecast center corresponds to the annual net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 of 1.025 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 14%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company in Q4 of 180 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of – 64.4%. We believe that the company has shown its determination to withdraw a large proportion of bill impairment losses, and the credit risk has been fully released. It is expected to be light in 2022.
The revenue is expected to exceed 10 billion, and the business structure is adjusted and optimized. According to the calculation of the performance forecast center, in 2021, the company is expected to achieve a revenue of 10.23 billion yuan, breaking the 10 billion mark, with an increase of 22.5%, of which the revenue growth rate of 21q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 company in a single quarter is 130.6% / 41.8% / 15.9% / – 8.3% respectively. It is expected that the revenue growth rate of Q4 is mainly affected by the sharp decline in the growth rate of bulk channel adjustment. In terms of business, the company’s retail business is stable, and the proportion of bulk business is stabilizing (21q1-3 bulk business revenue accounts for 16%). With the company’s focus on developing core real estate developers with strong payment power and high quality, increasing the proportion of dealers and paying attention to the recovery of accounts receivable and risk control, we expect the company’s customer structure to continue to be optimized.
The profit margin has temporarily declined, and it is expected to return to normal in 2022. Excluding the impact of credit impairment on the performance of the parent company, the net interest rate of the whole year is 26t-2024.02%, Q4 net interest rate attributable to parent company is 5.89% (-9.30pct.). The company’s profit margin declined in the second half of 2021, mainly due to: 1) the price of raw materials rose, but the price was not adjusted synchronously;
2) the SKU of the product is greatly increased in a short time, reducing the production efficiency; 3) The market competition of engineering business affects the gross profit margin of bulk channels; 4) New business promotion and dealer assistance strategies to improve the sales expense rate. Looking forward to 2022, with the price adjustment in place, the promotion of product standardization and the continuous optimization of business structure, the profitability is expected to return to normal.
Promote the strategy of all channels, multi brands and all categories, and pay attention to the inflection point of operation. 1) Whole house Customization: the company recently upgraded its brand positioning from “cabinet customization expert” to “wardrobe | whole house customization”, and officially launched 7 categories and 8 + 1 space overall solutions to provide consumers with more comprehensive category ecology and higher product standards. In the future, the company will continue to take the wardrobe as the entrance, extend the category to a far end and reconstruct the competitiveness of retail terminals. 2) Decoration channel: the company signed in-depth cooperation agreements with head decoration enterprises such as Xingyi decoration and Shengdu home decoration, launched channel exclusive products and price system, and formed a separation from retail channels; At the same time, we will promote the cooperation between dealers and local small-scale decoration enterprises to rapidly increase the volume of decoration business. We estimate that the company will realize the revenue of decoration channel of 500 million yuan in the whole year, of which Q4 revenue is about 180 million yuan. 3) Milanna: the company has made great efforts to sink the market layout through the new brand “milanna”. By the end of the third quarter, milanna had 297 franchisees and 109 stores. We expect that as milanna continues to accelerate the pace of opening stores, the revenue of the new brand is expected to continue to increase.
Investment suggestion: the company’s whole category strategy is upgraded, the channel structure is continuously optimized, and the opening of new brands is accelerated, which is expected to usher in an inflection point. We expect that the company’s sales revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 10.24, 11.93 and 13.62 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 22.6%, 16.5% and 14.2%, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 126, 14.53 and 1.677 billion yuan (the profit forecast was lowered according to the performance forecast, and the previous forecast values were 1.369, 1.591 and 1.814 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of – 89.5%, 1057.9% and 15.4%, and EPS of 0.14, 1.59 and 1.84 yuan, Considering the landing of the company’s bill impairment, it is expected to be light loaded and upgraded to the “buy” rating in 2022.
Risk tips: the risk of real estate policy regulation, the risk of intensified market competition and the risk of rising labor costs
