\u3000\u3000 Farasis Energy (Gan Zhou) Co.Ltd(688567) (688567)
21 year performance under pressure. On January 28, the company released the performance forecast for 21 years. It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be - 800 to - 1.1 billion yuan in the whole year, and the loss will increase by 141.69% to 232.32% year-on-year; The net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non profits was - 1.1 to - 1.4 billion yuan, and the loss increased by 102.80% to 158.11% year-on-year. According to the median value, the net profit attributable to the parent company in 21q4 is -530 million yuan, and the net profit attributable to the parent company after deducting non-profit is -596 million yuan. The reasons for the increase of year-on-year loss in the whole year are as follows: 1) the lower product price brought by the company's market development. 2) The price rise of the company's main raw materials affects the gross profit margin. 3) Fixed assets have increased, and the scale effect has not been fully shown yet. 4) Provision for asset impairment losses. It is mainly due to the credit impairment loss of Shanghai ruimg's receivables of 67 million yuan, the production of more non-performing products in the process of capacity climbing, and the provision for inventory falling price of dead goods of 166 million yuan. 5) Amortization of equity incentive expenses in 21 years was 165 million yuan.
The double turning point of revenue performance is imminent, and Daimler has high volume certainty. According to the announcement of the company's fixed increase reply letter, the company expects to generate 4.1 billion yuan of related party transactions with related customers Mercedes Benz Germany and Mercedes Benz America in 2022. At the same time, important customers Daimler and Guangzhou Automobile Group Co.Ltd(601238) have entered the stage of in-depth cooperation. So far, the company has received sufficient orders from major customers after September 30, 2021, with a total sales volume of 13.19 GWH, Coupled with the steady progress of the joint venture plant project between the company and Geely, the company expects the potential orders to be 25, 50 and 66 GWH respectively in 22 / 23 / 24 years, maintaining rapid growth. We expect that in 22 years, Daimler EQA / EQB / EQE / EQS and GAC aion series will have high volume certainty, which will produce a shipment demand of about 15gwh. Under optimistic circumstances, full production and full sales will turn losses into profits in 22 years, and the shipment in 23 years will be close to 50gwh. At present, it is the double inflection point of the company's revenue performance.
The price rise of raw materials is expected to be transferred downstream. In the past 21 years, the cost of some materials increased by more than 100%, the capital expenditure increased due to the expansion of Funeng production, and the control ability of the supply chain needs to be improved, resulting in losses. At the end of the 21st century, it has negotiated with the main engine factory, and the price increase will alleviate the profit pressure. At the same time, the company locked the price and supply by signing long orders with Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) .
The pass rate is close to meeting the customer's goal. According to the announcement of the company's fixed increase reply letter, the qualified rate of 21q1-3 has reached 92.14%. Considering the upward trend of the qualified rate month by month, we expect that it is close to 95% at present. The improvement of the maturity of the production line is conducive to the rapid and efficient release of production capacity of the company.
Investment suggestion: the company is still at a loss in 21 years and is expected to basically achieve profit and loss balance in 22 years. We reduced the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 to -966 million, 26 million and 2.360 billion yuan (previously -277 million, 351 million and 1.068 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of - 192%, 103% and 8833% respectively. The company's revenue growth from 21 to 23 years was 193%, 387% and 177% respectively, exceeding the industry growth; In the past 22 years, it was still in the ramp up stage of production capacity, and the net profit increased rapidly in 23 years, with PE reaching 13 times. Referring to the comparable companies Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) and Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) with similar production capacity, the 23-year P / E ratio wind's consistent profit expectation was 54 times and 24 times respectively. Considering that the company is the leader of soft packaging and the double inflection point of revenue and profit is imminent, it maintained the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: the sales volume of new energy vehicles is lower than expected; The popularization speed of soft package technology route is lower than expected; The price rise of raw materials exceeded expectations.
