\u3000\u3000 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872)
Event: the company issued the announcement of performance increase in 2021. It is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 5.116 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 753 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 729 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 18.72%, of which 21q4 is expected to achieve an operating revenue of 1.704 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.73%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 386 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.90%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 375 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 54.15%, and the forecast was slightly higher than expected.
The condiment business was accelerated to recover, and the revenue of real estate projects was confirmed to be thickened. In terms of business, Meiweixian company is expected to achieve a revenue of 4.618 billion yuan in 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 7.23%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 607 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 29.50%, and the net interest rate was 13.14%, a year-on-year decrease of 4.15 PCT; Among them, 21q4 is expected to achieve a revenue of 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.69%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 209 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 10.00%, and the net interest rate was 15.60%, with a year-on-year increase of 0.47 PCT. The overall performance of Q4 was better than expected, mainly because the company’s sales situation, terminal dynamic sales and personnel enthusiasm gradually recovered from the Q3 Trough since September, entered the industry price increase period in October, and some dealers pressed the goods in advance. Since the company announced the price increase in November, the inventory has gradually moved to the second batch of merchants and terminals, realizing benign dynamic sales as a whole. The de inventory situation is relatively smooth, and the impact of community group purchase has been gradually eliminated, which has promoted the rapid growth of Q4 revenue as a whole. On the profit side, as part of the expenses directly decrease the income, the overall net interest rate rises. In the real estate sector, the parent company confirmed the sales revenue of commercial houses of Qijiang east bank project on Q4, further thickening the annual performance.
Looking forward to 2022, the company will welcome a good start with low inventory. According to channel research, at the end of 2021, the channel inventory in Chubang’s main sales area was about 20-25 days, which was higher than q2-q3, and the base number has returned to benign dynamic sales. At present, the price increase has been transmitted to the factory price and dealer level, and the terminal price is still supported by promotional activities. It is expected that the overall price system is expected to be straightened out after the Spring Festival, and the price increase bonus will be gradually implemented. Under the low inventory base, the revenue target is expected to be completed quickly in January 2022. Looking forward to the whole year, the revenue is expected to accelerate the growth by relying on the profit improvement and channel expansion brought by the favorable price after the price increase.
Investment suggestion: we believe that the company is in the condiment golden track, with first mover advantage + strong brand strength, production capacity first, escorting the large-scale production of products. At present, the price increase is conducted smoothly, and the revenue is expected to be further thickened. At the same time, both channels and categories are in the expansion channel, and the growth can be expected in 2022. We expect that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 5.116 billion yuan, 5.805 billion yuan and 6.682 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 753 million yuan, 811 million yuan and 982 million yuan respectively. We maintain the investment rating of Buy-A, and the six-month target price is 40.73 yuan, which is equivalent to the dynamic P / E ratio of 40x in 2022.
Risk tips: macroeconomic and policy risks, food safety problems, and the price rise is less than expected
