\u3000\u3000 Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) (603567)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a restricted stock incentive plan for 2022 (Draft), which plans to grant 1.5 million restricted shares to 51 incentive objects such as general manager Chen Hai at the price of 7.37 yuan / share, accounting for about 0.159% of the company's current total share capital.
The assessment objectives show confidence, and the sales of oral preparations of the company is expected to achieve rapid growth. According to the draft equity incentive plan, the shares used in this incentive are issued by the company to the incentive objects. The performance assessment objectives include: 1) the proportion of R & D expenditure in revenue from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 5%; 2) Based on 2021, the growth rate of sales revenue of oral preparation products from 2022 to 2024 shall not be less than 40%; 3) From 2022 to 2024, the turnover rate of business accounts receivable shall not be less than 3%, 4% and 5% respectively. In the past, the company mainly sold traditional Chinese medicine injections, and the income of oral traditional Chinese medicine preparations accounted for a relatively low proportion. We estimate that the income of oral preparations will account for less than 10% in 2020. With the cancellation of the payment restrictions on the company's Xueshuantong capsule, compound qinlan oral liquid and other varieties limited to outpatient clinics and designated pharmacies in the 2021 medical insurance, the sales of relevant oral preparations are expected to accelerate. The draft equity incentive plan released by the company this time shows confidence in the future sales growth of oral preparations.
Xiaoer re Suqing syrup has been approved as the second grade protected variety of national traditional Chinese medicine. The company recently announced that its Xiaoer re Suqing syrup has been approved as a second grade protected variety of national traditional Chinese medicine. Xiaoer re Suqing syrup is a commonly used Chinese patent medicine for pediatric upper respiratory tract infection. According to the data of Intranet, the terminal market scale of Xiaoer re Suqing syrup hospital in 2020 was 3.55 million yuan, Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) accounting for 96.62%; The scale of retail terminal market is 1.28 million yuan, Heilongjiang Zbd Pharmaceutical Co.Ltd(603567) accounting for 19.35%. This time, Xiaoer re Suqing syrup was approved as the first class II protected variety of traditional Chinese medicine, which is conducive to the company to give full play to the intellectual property advantages of leading products and further improve the market share.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: it is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be 540 million yuan, 670 million yuan and 840 million yuan, with corresponding EPS of 0.57 yuan, 0.72 yuan and 0.89 yuan respectively, and corresponding PE of 23 times, 19 times and 15 times. The company's traditional Chinese medicine injection and oral preparations are expected to accelerate their growth due to favorable policies. It is expected to invest in tress's layout, innovate the internationalization of biological drugs, and its future development is worth looking forward to.
Risk tips: centralized purchase policy risk of Chinese patent medicine, R & D risk and deterioration risk of competition pattern.
