\u3000\u3000 Shenzhen Kangtai Biological Products Co.Ltd(300601) (300601)
Key investment points
Event: the company issued a performance forecast for] 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 1.2 billion yuan to 1.4 billion yuan (+ 77% ~ + 106%), and the net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company will reach 1.13 billion yuan (+ 82% ~ + 114%). The performance is basically in line with market expectations.
The overseas export of covid-19 vaccine is worth looking forward to, and the margin of conventional varieties affected by covid-19 is weakened. In Q4 alone, the company is expected to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 160 million yuan to 360 million yuan (- 33% ~ + 48%), which is mainly due to the slowdown of covid-19 vaccination in China and the continuous promotion of overseas export approval. According to the export data of the customs and the prediction of the company’s production capacity, the company’s annual net profit of covid-19 vaccine is about 550 million yuan to 100 million yuan. At present, the company’s adenovirus covid-19 vaccine has obtained the local EUA in Indonesia in early November and has been exported for local epidemic prevention and control. The EUA work in other regions is continuing. It is expected that the adenovirus covid-19 vaccine will continue to be in large quantities after it is approved in 2022. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation and covid-19 vaccine centralized vaccination, the company is expected to realize a net profit of 600-700 million yuan in the whole year. However, the company has optimized the sales channel of quadruplex vaccine and is expected to resume growth in 2022. At present, the 13 price pneumonia vaccine has been admitted in nearly one-third of the provinces in China. The company adopts the low price strategy to price about 460 yuan, which highlights the cost performance advantage compared with manufacturers outside China, It is expected to quickly seize market share. In 2022, under the condition of low base, the company’s conventional varieties will continue to invest in the company’s channels, and the sales volume is expected to exceed the market expectation.
The varieties under research in 22-23 years have entered the approval period, and the long-term development power is sufficient. At present, the company has more than 3 projects under research, and 13 have entered the registration process. It is expected that 4-5 new varieties will be approved in the next two years. Among them, the freeze-dried diploid crazy vaccine, as the industry gold standard, has received the on-site verification notice, and the freeze-dried varicella vaccine is expected to complete the clinical summary report in Q1 of 2 years. In addition, MCV4, IPV and other vaccines have entered or completed phase III clinical stage, and the recombinant EV71 vaccine has completed phase II clinical stage. At present, it is preparing to be transferred to tetravalent hand, foot and mouth disease vaccine, pentavalent rotavirus vaccine and other vaccines have obtained the notice of approval for clinical trial. The product pipeline is based on innovation, focuses on solving the existing unmet needs, and has sufficient power for long-term development.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. Affected by covid-19 vaccination in the short term, the sales volume of traditional vaccine business decreased slightly, regardless of covid-19 vaccine revenue. It is estimated that the EPS from 2021 to 2023 will be 0.91 yuan, 1.55 yuan and 2.4 yuan respectively. In the long term, COVID-19 will weaken the marginal effect of the future, and China’s traditional vaccines (quadruple vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine) will enter the stage of recovery in 2022. The new product 13 valent pneumonia vaccine is approved to be listed, and the volume of the vaccine is expected to accelerate in 2022. As the leader of China’s innovative vaccine enterprise, the company is rich in research and management line, and will have many varieties approved in the next 2-4 years, and the long-term growth is strong. Maintain the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: the R & D of new products is lower than expected, and the product price reduction risk.
