\u3000\u3000 Hangzhou Weiguang Electronic Co.Ltd(002801) (002801)
The company is mainly engaged in micro motors. The company is the leader of micro motors in China, with stable operation and superior profitability. Its products include refrigerator motors, external rotor fans, ECM motors and servo motors
Among them, the sales volume of external rotor fan and ECM motor ranks first in China and that of freezer motor ranks first in the world. From 2011 to 2020, the CAGR of the company's revenue and net profit attributable to the parent company were 12% and 17% respectively. In 2021q1 ~ Q3, the company's revenue was about 790 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 44%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was about 170 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 21%. The company has excellent profitability, with a gross profit margin of about 30% and a net profit margin of about 20%.
The basic market is stable: the development prospect of cold chain logistics is broad, and the potential space of ventilation market is large
Cold chain logistics: cold chain penetration in developing countries has great room to improve, and the application fields of cold chain continue to expand. The cold chain logistics industry is in a high growth stage. It is expected that the growth rate of global cold chain will be about 13% and that of China will be about 19% from 2021 to 2028. The sales of supporting cold chain equipment of the company's main products account for more than 70%, which will benefit from the development dividend of the industry for a long time.
Ventilation: China's air purifier penetration rate is less than 5%, which is far lower than that of developed countries, and there is still great development. In the long run, the CAGR of the global air purifier market will reach 11% from 2020 to 2030. The popularity of fresh air system in China is only 5%, and the potential market is large. Fortune business insights predicts that the global fresh air market scale CAGR will be about 8% from 2021 to 2028.
Policies to stimulate ECM motor volume, is expected to achieve both volume and price rise
In 2020, the company's ECM motor revenue reached 100 million, accounting for 13% of the company's total revenue, with a gross profit margin of more than 37%, higher than the company's average. According to the plan of motor energy efficiency improvement plan (2021-2023), by 2023, the proportion of in-service high-efficiency and energy-saving motors will reach more than 20%, which will increase the demand for high-efficiency motors by more than twice in the short term, which is expected to stimulate the company's ECM motor volume, promote the optimization of product structure and realize the simultaneous rise of volume and price.
Energy storage and temperature control + lithium iron phosphate potential market gives the company imagination
Energy storage and temperature control: the industry is about to take off. According to the conservative prediction of cnesa, the new scale of energy storage CAGR from 2021 to 2025 is about 51%. Air cooling is one of the main technical schemes of energy storage and temperature control system, which can be combined with liquid cooling in the future. The rotor fan outside the company is applied to the energy storage and temperature control system, which can effectively improve the cooling effect. It is expected to benefit from the rapid development of the energy storage industry in the future. Lithium iron phosphate: the warming of lithium iron phosphate power battery and the rise of superimposed energy storage. It is estimated that the global demand for lithium iron phosphate cathode material CAGR will be about 55% from 2021 to 2025, and the demand will reach 1.44 million tons by 2025. The company invests in the lithium iron phosphate project to lay out a new track, which may become a highlight of performance in the future.
Profit forecast
The company is the leader of micro motor in HVAC field. Under the trend of high efficiency and energy saving, the product structure is further optimized, and the development of new fields is expected to open up imagination space. We expect that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 1.11 billion yuan, 1.46 billion yuan and 1.86 billion yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 38%, + 32% and + 28% respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 240 million yuan, 320 million yuan and 430 million yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of + 23%, + 32% and + 35% respectively. The corresponding PE is 18, 13 and 10 times respectively. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk tips
The price of raw materials fluctuated, the RMB exchange rate rose, and the market expansion was less than expected
