Policy promotion + "mileage anxiety" promotes the rapid development of lightweight, and the aluminum alloy market has a broad space. In the face of the promotion of energy conservation and emission reduction policies and the anxiety about the mileage of new energy vehicles, lightweight has become an important technical direction. Aluminum alloy materials have become the best choice for lightweight because of their cost-effective advantages. The market space is expected to reach 136.2 billion yuan in 2025 and the compound growth rate from 2020 to 2025 will reach 17.1%.
The increase of aluminum alloy body structural parts brings the difficulty of splicing process upgrading. With the continuous increase of aluminum alloy materials, it is more difficult to adopt the original stamping + welding process for the splicing process of body structural parts, including the increase of cost and the decrease of splicing efficiency caused by new connection methods such as friction stir welding, laser welding and riveting.
The equipment / material / process is gradually improved, and the cost / efficiency / safety / precision requirements jointly promote Tesla's integrated die casting. With the increasing tonnage of die-casting equipment + the maturity of heating free alloy technology + the continuous improvement of high-pressure die-casting injection, molding, cooling and other processes, the integration of aluminum alloy has become possible in technology. Driven by the multiple needs of cost, efficiency, safety and precision, Tesla took the lead in trying the integrated die-casting technology to complete the integrated die-casting of the rear base sector of model y, and will gradually expand to the front base sector, front wall module, etc.
The market space is vast, and new forces + supply chain follow up one after another. With the continuous maturity of integrated die casting technology, it is expected to be applied to body structural parts such as front floor, rear floor, a / B / C / D column and front wall assembly, as well as three electric system products such as battery box. The market space is expected to reach 38.9 billion yuan in 2025, with a compound growth rate of 205% from 2021 to 2025. According to the disclosure of Lijin group, super die casting machines suitable for integrated die casting will be delivered to six Chinese auto enterprises in 2022. Large die casting equipment has been purchased or planned to be purchased in Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) , Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) , Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) , Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) and other auto parts supply chain to lay out the field of integrated die casting.
Investment suggestions: integrated die casting enterprises have been laid out. It is recommended to [ Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) + Ikd Co.Ltd(600933) ], and pay attention to [ Wencan Group Co.Ltd(603348) + Ningbo Xusheng Auto Technology Co.Ltd(603305) + Guangdong Hongtu Technology (Holdings) Co.Ltd(002101) + Nanjing Chervon Auto Precision Technology Co.Ltd(603982) ]
Risk tip: the penetration rate of new energy is lower than expected, the integrated die casting is lower than expected, and the recovery of downstream passenger car demand is lower than expected.
