Event: on January 28, the Fund Industry Association disclosed the market data of public funds in December 2021 and the top 100 scale of 2021q4 sales agency stock + hybrid funds.
Comments:
The trend of public offering expansion remains unchanged, the share of tripartite markets continues to increase, and the profit growth of big wealth management continues
At the end of 2021, the holding scale of non commodity funds in the whole market was 16.09 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 36%, and the holding scale of shares + mixed shares was 8.63 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 34%. In December, the holding scale of non commodity / partial shares was + 4.1% / + 2.0% month on month, exceeding our expectations. In 2021q4, the market share of independent third parties continued to increase. Among the non inventory holdings of the top 100 institutions, the shares of independent third parties in 2021q1 / Q2 / Q3 / Q4 were 27.1% / 28.5% / 32.2% / 34.5% respectively. 2021q4 fund subscription increased more than expected, the impact of new issues on ownership continued to weaken, and the expansion trend of the public offering market remained unchanged, continuing to support the profit growth of big wealth management. Recommend leading companies in the main line of big wealth management and head securities companies with undervalued value. Recommend China stock market news, Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) , Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) and Huatai Securities Co.Ltd(601688) , and benefit from Citic Securities Company Limited(600030) , China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares), China Industrial Securities Co.Ltd(601377) and China Greatwall Securities Co.Ltd(002939) .
The subscription of the fund exceeded expectations, the willingness to redeem decreased, and the impact of new issuance on the growth of ownership continued to weaken
(1) the subscription amount is calculated according to the newly issued data of wind, and the subscription amount is estimated according to the subscription share of the public fund in the fourth quarterly report of 2021. The subscription amount of 2021q4 partial share fund (share + mixed) is 2.1 trillion yuan, with a chain comparison of - 31% and a year-on-year comparison of - 3%; Among them, the subscription amount was 288.3 billion yuan, with - 44% month on month and - 46% year on year. The subscription amount was 1.81 trillion yuan, with - 28% month on month and + 11% year on year; The scale of new issuance in 2021q4 accounts for 14% of the subscription amount, a decrease of 3PCT (24% in 2020) compared with 17% in 2021q3, which means that the impact of new development fund on the growth of retained scale continues to weaken and the impact of stock subscription continues to increase. (2) 2021q4 partial equity funds redeemed 1.05 trillion shares, accounting for 81% of subscription shares, with a month on month decrease of 0.47pct, better than our previous expectation, and Jimin's willingness to redeem continued to decline. (3) Under the neutral assumptions of - 36% new issuance, 83% redemption ratio (78% in 2021) and zero increase in the net value of partial stock funds, it is expected that the scale of partial stock and non commodity ownership will be + 15% / + 20% and the daily average partial stock and non commodity ownership will be + 20% / + 28% respectively in 2022, which will still support the profit growth of big wealth management company.
The market share of independent third parties was further increased, and the tripartite platform focusing on institutional business continued to grow significantly
Among the top 100 institutions with partial stock funds, the scale of bank partial stock funds and non commodity basic guarantee was + 4.0% / + 5.7% month on month, accounting for 59% / 53% of the top 100 institutions respectively, with a month on month ratio of - 0.5 / - 1.5pct respectively, still maintaining the first camp in the industry. The scale of securities companies' partial equity funds and non commodity based insurance was - 0.4% / + 0.8% month on month, accounting for 15% / 12% of the top 100 institutions respectively, and - 0.8 / - 1.0pct month on month. The scale of independent third-party partial equity funds and non commodity based insurance was + 10.1% / + 16.7% month on month, accounting for 26% / 35% of the top 100 institutions respectively, and + 1.2 / + 2.4pct month on month. In 2021q4, the top four partial stock funds and non commodity fund are China Merchants Bank Co.Ltd(600036) , ant fund, Tiantian fund and Industrial And Commercial Bank Of China Limited(601398) . Among them, the partial stock / non commodity holding scale of Tiantian fund reached 537.1 billion yuan / 673.9 billion yuan, with a chain ratio of + 10.9% / + 16.5%. Among the head institutions, the growth rate is leading, the partial stock ranking rose one to third, and the partial stock and non commodity market share reached 6.22% / 4.19%, with a chain ratio of + 0.18pct / + 0.19pct. Shanghai Jiyu and Beijing Huicheng 2021q4 non commodity holdings, which focus on institutional business, continued to increase at a high rate, with a month on month increase of + 42% / + 70% (2021q3 month on month increase of + 78% / + 87%), respectively. The impact of institutional business superimposed stock subscription has increased, and the market share of independent three parties is expected to continue the growth trend.
Risk warning: market fluctuations bring uncertainty to the growth; The market share of head institutions was lower than expected.
