In 2021q4, the rise of non-ferrous stocks narrowed, and the quarterly increase of SW non-ferrous reached 1.44%, down 21.67pct compared with Q3. 2021q4 metal prices remained high, and the average prices of q4shfe copper and aluminum were 70500 yuan / ton and 20200 yuan / ton respectively, up 1.52% and down 2.11% month on month; Year on year growth of 29.3% and 30.2% respectively. In terms of copper, due to the impact of covid-19 mutation virus, the source of imported goods is limited, and there are not many tradable goods in the spot market, resulting in the recovery of spot premium price, and the fluctuation range of copper price is narrower than Q3; In terms of aluminum, the double carbon policy slowed down the growth of aluminum supply, but the downstream production and sales were OK, the spot inventory continued to decline, and the Q4 aluminum price fluctuated upward. In 2021q4, the metal sectors related to the rare earth, magnetic materials and other industrial chains strengthened, and lithium, cobalt and nickel were basically oriented well. However, there were some adjustments in the sectors. The non-ferrous sector as a whole rose slightly by 1.44%, ranking 16th in terms of growth. In terms of breakdown, the rise of magnetic materials sector led the nonferrous metals sector, followed by rare earth sector, and Q4 rose by 43.46% and 18.87% respectively. Q4 magnetic materials will take the lead in 2021 or mainly benefit from the new deal of industrial motors. The demand for magnetic materials is expected to have a large incremental space. On the other hand, the demand for new energy is still booming, but there are different adjustments in Q4 lithium industry stocks.
In 2021q4, the proportion of non-ferrous industry fund positions decreased slightly, and the new energy sector remains the main line. From the perspective of institutional positions: the proportion of SW nonferrous 2021q4 fund positions decreased by 0.48pct to 3.65% month on month. In Q4 of 2021, affected by covid-19 mutation virus, the global economic recovery slowed down, the market demand for risk avoidance increased significantly, the price of industrial metals generally weakened, and the proportion of industrial fund positions decreased slightly. However, due to the heat of the new energy industry maintained, the market was active, and the positions of relevant targets increased significantly. Overall, the position of non-ferrous sector funds decreased by 0.48pct to 3.65% month on month compared with Q4, but it is still at a historically high level. In terms of individual stocks, the proportion of public fund positions of the top 10 enterprises decreased from 78.43% in 21q3 to 75.58%, of which Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) positions accounted for the largest 19.0%. Due to the smooth progress of the quinana project, the loan was successfully extended, the capital pressure was relieved, the fundamentals continued to improve, and the proportion of institutional positions increased by 4.9pct to 18.2%. The top 10 companies with positions in 2021q4 public funds totaled 101.84 billion yuan, a month on month decrease of 12.4 billion yuan, accounting for 75.58% of the positions in all non-ferrous sectors, down from 78.43% in 2021q3. Among them, the subjects with the highest proportion of positions are Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) 25.56 billion yuan (18.97%), Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) 24.49 billion yuan (18.17%), Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) 13.69 billion yuan (10.16%), Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) 11.41 billion yuan (8.47%), Henan Mingtai Al.Industrial Co.Ltd(601677) 6.20 billion yuan (4.60%).
With the dual role of supply and demand, industrial metal prices are expected to boom for a long time. On the supply side, the double carbon policy and the rise of energy prices increase the production cost of energy consuming metals. At the same time, the policy also limits the expansion of some production capacity. In addition, the uncertainty or continuous impact of epidemic and Geopolitics on the supply side. On the demand side, China’s monetary policy is expected to be loose, and the carry over amount of special bonds and the amount issued in advance in 2022 have reached a record high. Under the expectation of steady growth, infrastructure construction is expected to further drive the demand for basic metals. In addition, copper and other metals also benefit from the demand for new energy. At present, inventories of copper, aluminum, nickel and other metals are low, prices may remain high, and supply and demand play a dual role. Industrial metals are expected to prosper for a long time in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zijin Mining Group Company Limited(601899) , Henan Shenhuo Coal&Power Co.Ltd(000933) , Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.Ltd(600219) , Western Mining Co.Ltd(601168) , etc.
Resources have a high premium, so we need to pay attention to the dual attributes of “elasticity + growth” of lithium sector. 1) Lithium resources are in short supply for a long time. Lithium resources projects began to be put into centralized production in the second half of 2022. Under the uncertainty of the project itself and the high demand, the supply of lithium resources may be in short supply for a long time. 2) Industrial chain integration or building the core competitive advantage of upstream and downstream enterprises. Industrial chain integration helps to maintain supply chain security, reduce production and operation costs, drive the demand side to continue to produce large quantities, and form a significant competitive advantage in the future. It is suggested to pay attention to: Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) , Yongxing Special Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002756) , Qinghai Salt Lake Industry Co.Ltd(000792) , Tibet Mineral Development Co.Ltd(000762) , Sichuan Yahua Industrial Group Co.Ltd(002497) , Suzhou Ta&A Ultra Clean Technology Co.Ltd(300390) , Chengxin Lithium Group Co.Ltd(002240) .
Overseas logistics continues to be tight, and cobalt prices are expected to remain high. The import of cobalt raw materials is limited due to logistics, while the external cobalt price is high, and China’s Cobalt price may remain high in the short term. Although mutanda’s resumption of production in advance to the end of 2021 will increase the pressure on the supply side to a certain extent, and the associated cobalt of laterite nickel ore wet process project will also supplement part of the supply increment, with the increase of ternary power battery base in the future, the demand for 3C battery will increase steadily, The price of cobalt products may be in a reasonable range for a long time. Low inventory continues to support nickel prices, and the long-term launch of new production capacity may be beneficial to the improvement of ternary permeability. At present, there is a significant trend of industrial chain integration in the links of ternary precursors. The products of Qingshan high matte nickel have been converted to production, while the laterite nickel ore wet process project is about to be centralized. New processes such as hpal and rich nutrition side blowing are good for the improvement of ternary permeability. It is suggested to pay attention to: Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Chengtun Mining Group Co.Ltd(600711) , China Molybdenum Co.Ltd(603993) , Nanjing Hanrui Cobalt Co.Ltd(300618) , etc.
Continue to pay attention to investment opportunities in the field of rare earth: insufficient separation and smelting indicators, which is beneficial to the integrated enterprise of oxide magnetic materials. China issues the total amount control index of rare earth mining every year, and the total amount control of smelting and separation capacity in China is also implemented. The new capacity needs to be submitted for approval. According to SMM, there are problems such as insufficient separation and smelting index in the expansion of separation enterprises in light rare earth mining areas such as Inner Mongolia, Shandong and Sichuan; Separation enterprises in areas where medium and heavy rare earth mines are used, such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi, are facing short-term or Spring Festival shutdown for maintenance, and rare earth prices are still supported. It is suggested to pay attention to: China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co.Ltd(600111) , Jl Mag Rare-Earth Co.Ltd(300748) , etc.
Risk tips:
Metal prices fell sharply, demand was lower than expected, and macroeconomic performance was poor
