Intelligence is the most attractive track in the automobile supply chain in 2022.
2022 is the key time point connecting the preceding and the following for this round of global automotive Centennial reform. Electrification is the first half and intelligence is the second half. If the penetration of new energy vehicles is divided into three stages: "0-1", "1-10" and "10-100", by January 2022, the penetration of new energy vehicles in the Chinese market has achieved 0-15% (realizing the "0-1" stage) with the continuous progress of electrification technology, and the next 2022-2025 will usher in a leap period from 15% - 50% + penetration (realizing the "1-10" stage), The intellectualization will make the electric takeover the most important driver at this stage. Under the screening framework of "single vehicle value + penetration + gross profit margin", intellectualization is one of the most attractive tracks.
Demand - technology - capital - talents form a good positive cycle, and the flywheel rotation in all links of intellectualization enters the acceleration stage.
Penetration rate is the most important index to guide the investment of intelligent track. L3 function will accelerate the realization of phase 0-1 in 2022, and L2 function will accelerate the realization of optional configuration to standard configuration phase (phase 1-10) in 2022. The four applications of "domain controller + lidar + HUD + acoustics" are the most significant.
E / E architecture is the bottom layer of intelligent track tracking technology. The methodology of the architecture industry has formed a consensus. The difference lies in how the plans of various car enterprises are implemented and who is faster / more capable. Functional domain + Ethernet will gradually become standard configuration.
"Sensing layer (information input) - decision layer (information processing) - execution layer (information transmission) "Is the three major technological innovation nodes of intelligent track tracking. Lidar is the largest increment of the sensing layer in 2022. AI chip OS domain controller has always been the focus of continuous technical iteration at the decision-making level, and NVIDIA Orin chip pays the most attention. The chassis domain is the key point of the executive layer. The shortage of chips has accelerated the domestic replacement of the chassis in 2021, and the architecture upgrade will accelerate the development of the chassis domain Formation. Braking by wire is still the focus in 2022.
The application layer is the key to test whether the penetration rate of intelligent terminal can be improved. [E / E architecture sensing decision execution] the final result is whether it can bring good human-computer interaction experience to consumers. Smart cockpit is still the strongest function perceived by consumers in 2022, and consumers' function perception of assisted driving is still in the stage of quantitative change and improvement.
Investment suggestion: firmly optimistic about the road of automobile intelligent competition. Core stocks of each link: 1) sensing layer: lidar (torch technology) + camera (Shunyu Optics), etc. 2) Decision making level: AI chip (NVIDIA + Qualcomm + horizon) + autopilot domain controller ( Huizhou Desay Sv Automotive Co.Ltd(002920) + Thunder Software Technology Co.Ltd(300496) ) + cockpit domain controller ( Foryou Corporation(002906) ), etc. 3) Executive layer: braking by wire ( Bethel Automotive Safety Systems Co.Ltd(603596) + Ningbo Tuopu Group Co.Ltd(601689) ) + steering by wire (Nextel), etc. 4) Application layer: HUD function ( Foryou Corporation(002906) ) + acoustics ( Suzhou Sonavox Electronics Co.Ltd(688533) ), etc.
Risk warning: the global epidemic control is lower than expected; The shortage of chips continued, and the recovery of passenger car demand was lower than expected; Intelligent promotion is not as expected.
