In 2022, the global new model year of electric vehicles, the trend of electrification is accelerating, and the global sales volume is expected to exceed 10 million, with a year-on-year increase of 60%. In 2022, the trend of electrification and intellectualization in China was clear, and a large number of new models were launched to supplement the price band of 100000-200000 yuan. With the large volume of DM-I and modely, the delivery of new models of new forces and the further improvement of independent vehicle enterprises, our sales volume in 2022 is expected to be 6 million vehicles (including exports), with a year-on-year increase of more than 70%. In Europe, the carbon emission assessment will be further tightened in 2022, and the subsidy policy will basically remain slightly higher than expected. With the intensive launch of pure electric platform models, we expect to sell 2.7 million vehicles, with a year-on-year increase of about 32%. The overweight trend of electric vehicle policy in the United States is clear. 2022 is the first year of electrification of pickup truck models in the United States. Many new models such as Tesla cybertruck, Ford F-150 and new forces of American car making have been launched. We expect that the sales volume in the United States is expected to reach 1.3 million in 2022, doubling year-on-year. Therefore, we expect that the global sales volume of electric vehicles is expected to exceed 10 million in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of more than + 60%, and the trend of electrification is clear.
In 2022, the prosperity of the industry will continue, the annual orders of the leading enterprises will exceed the market expectations, and we expect to further increase the global market share; The midstream first promotes the battery link with profit inflection point, followed by the scarce link with stable pattern and rising volume and profit; The supply of upstream lithium carbonate is in tight balance, and we expect the price to rise further. In 2022, we expect that the terminal sales volume will still maintain a high growth of 60% + and considering the increased demand for energy storage two wheeled vehicles, the growth rate of the industry is expected to further exceed the market expectation. In addition, the demand elasticity of China is greater than that of overseas enterprises, and the orders of overseas enterprises are generally stable. According to the guidance of battery leading orders, it is expected to maintain a double growth in 2022 and further improve the global market share of Chinese suppliers. In the battery sector, benefiting from the high growth rate of the Chinese market + the outbreak of blessing in the energy storage industry, the global market share of Chinese battery plants is expected to continue to increase, Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) overseas production capacity production + export proportion increase, and the leading position is stable; In terms of profitability, in 2022q1, we expect that the price rise of battery will fall to the ground, which is expected to lead to the rise of lithium carbonate cost. Combined with the slowdown of the price rise of other raw materials in the upstream, we expect the profitability to hit the bottom and rise in the middle of 2022. In terms of materials, benefiting from China’s high growth and global procurement, we expect to maintain a high growth of 70-80% in 2022. The pattern of scarce links and integrated leading companies is stable in 2022, and it is expected to achieve both volume and profit. By the end of 2022, the ratio of overseas film coating to local film coating has been strengthened, and the profit of leading customers has been increased. The specific ratio of film coating to the end of 2022 has been strengthened; Negative pole graphitization: in 2022, the production capacity is tightly balanced, and the advantage of leading integration is obvious; The proportion of lithium iron phosphate continues to increase, the trend of ternary high nickel is clear, and we expect to maintain the leading profit; The production expansion cycle of copper foil is long, the supply is tight in 2022, and the processing fee has price elasticity; The shortage of hexafluoride is expected to continue until the middle of 2022. The long order will smooth the price cycle and the profit of electrolyte leader can be maintained. Upstream lithium resources benefit from the explosion of downstream demand. We expect to add 170000-200000 tons of supply throughout the year, which can support the increment of about 280gwh battery. The supply shortage is expected to continue until the end of 2022. The price may rise further, and the price elasticity of leading manufacturers is large.
The upgrading of battery technology is accelerated, which brings new increment to the industrial chain. We pay attention to the further improvement of the competitiveness of leading companies. 4680 battery has improved energy density, production efficiency, fast charging performance and reduced battery cost through large cell + full polar ear technology. We expect Tesla and Panasonic to start mass production of 4680 battery in the first half of 2022. China Ningde Yiwei has a layout, which will drive the demand for high nickel cathode + silicon carbon cathode + carbon nanotube conductive agent + large cylindrical structural parts + new lithium salt, Corresponding leading companies benefit. Lithium manganese iron phosphate not only maintains good cycle performance, safety and low-cost characteristics, but also improves the energy density of the battery, but the poor conductivity makes the processing technical route difficult and there are high technical barriers. The battery terminals Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) are actively being developed; Technology breakthroughs such as material end Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) and Litai lithium energy are fast.
Investment suggestion: in January 2022, the valuation of the electric vehicle sector was adjusted back to 20-40x, below the historical median, and the performance growth rate of 70-100% was significantly underestimated compared with the leader; The wave of electrification has been fully recognized. With the accelerated penetration of electrification, superimposed energy storage began to break out. The high growth of lithium battery in 2022 is determined, and the overall situation of short supply is maintained. Moreover, the global share of China’s lithium battery leader is further improved. It is expected to maintain high growth in the next few years, and continue to focus on the leader of electric vehicles in an all-round way. The battery sector that is optimistic about the profitable repair in 2022 has the best long-term pattern and the highest barriers, leading the technological transformation of the whole industry. It is the leader Contemporary Amperex Technology Co.Limited(300750) , Eve Energy Co.Ltd(300014) , Byd Company Limited(002594) , focusing on the second-line Sunwoda Electronic Co.Ltd(300207) , Gotion High-Tech Co.Ltd(002074) , Jiangsu Azure Corporation(002245) , followed by the high nickel ternary cathode ( Ningbo Ronbay New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(688005) , Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt Co.Ltd(603799) , Cngr Advanced Material Co.Ltd(300919) , Beijing Easpring Material Technology Co.Ltd(300073) ) that has benefited from the upgrading of battery technology recently Lithium manganese iron phosphate ( Shenzhen Dynanonic Co.Ltd(300769) , focus on Mianyang Fulin Precision Co.Ltd(300432) , Jiangsu Lopal Tech.Co.Ltd(603906) ), structural parts ( Shenzhen Kedali Industry Co.Ltd(002850) ), additives ( Jiangsu Cnano Technology Co.Ltd(688116) ); Once again, it is the global leader in continuous shortage for 22 years: diaphragm ( Yunnan Energy New Material Co.Ltd(002812) , Shenzhen Senior Technology Material Co.Ltd(300568) ), negative electrode ( Shanghai Putailai New Energy Technology Co.Ltd(603659) , pay attention to Ningbo Shanshan Co.Ltd(600884) , Hunan Zhongke Electric Co.Ltd(300035) ), electrolyte ( Guangzhou Tinci Materials Technology Co.Ltd(002709) , Shenzhen Capchem Technology.Ltd(300037) ), copper foil ( Nuode Investment Co.Ltd(600110) , pay attention to Guangdong Jiayuan Technology Co.Ltd(688388) ), lithium carbonate (pay attention to Ganfeng Lithium Co.Ltd(002460) , Tianqi Lithium Corporation(002466) ), etc.
Risk tip: the price competition is higher than expected, the price of raw materials is unstable, which affects the profit space, the growth rate of investment declines, and the impact of the epidemic.
