Weekly market of construction industry
The industry rose and fell in the week. This week (1.24-1.29), the building decoration industry (SW) fell by 4.20%, which was stronger than the performance of Shanghai Composite Index (- 4.57%), Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 (- 4.51%) and Shenzhen Component Index (- 5.00%). The weekly increase ranked 10th among the 28 primary industries of sw28, and the industry ranking fell by 6 compared with last week (4th). In terms of molecular sectors, steel structure (+ 7.88%) and engineering consulting services (+ 3.56%) rose the most, while the decoration sector performed the weakest (- 0.74%).
Performance of individual stocks in a week. A total of 11 companies in the construction industry recorded an increase this week, accounting for 7.5%; The number of companies that rose more than the industry index (- 4.20%) this week was 63, accounting for 43.15%. The construction industry recorded an increase this week, the number of companies decreased, and the number of companies whose performance exceeded the industry increase increased. The top five increases in the industry are Shandong Hi-Speed Road&Bridge Co.Ltd(000498) (+ 14.64%), Zhongyan Technology Co.Ltd(003001) (+ 9.03%), Henan Provincial Communications Planning & Design Institute Co.Ltd(300732) (+ 6.69%), Sinosteel Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(000928) (+ 5.73%), Tianyu Eco-Environment Co.Ltd(603717) (+ 4.87%); The top five industry declines this week were Shenzhen Magic Design & Decoration Engineering Co.Ltd(002856) (- 24.01%), Lingnan Eco&Culture-Tourism Co.Ltd(002717) (- 22.91%), Shenzhen Jianyi Decoration Group Co.Ltd(002789) (- 18.07%), Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) (- 15.04%), East China Engineering Science And Technology Co.Ltd(002140) (- 14.51%).
The industry valuation is in the undervalued range. From the perspective of the overall P / E ratio of the industry, as of January 28, the P / E ratio PE (TTM) of the architectural decoration industry was only 8.49 times, and the P / B ratio Pb (MRQ) of the industry was 0.89 times, down from last week. Compared with the SW primary industry, PE in the construction industry ranks the fourth from the bottom, slightly higher than household appliances, non bank finance and banks; Pb valuation ranks the penultimate in all primary industries, higher than banking, real estate and steel industries. At present, the top 5 lowest price earnings ratio (TTM) of the industry are Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) (3.11), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (4.22), China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) (4.31), China Railway Group Limited(601390) (5.54), Tengda Construction Group Co.Ltd(600512) (5.58); The lowest price to book ratio (MRQ) is China Railway Construction Corporation Limited(601186) (0.55), Shenzhen Grandland Group Co.Ltd(002482) (0.61), Beijing Orient Landscape & Environment Co.Ltd(002310) (0.64), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (0.66), Misho Ecology & Landscape Co.Ltd(300495) (0.67).
Industry dynamics
The 14th five year building development plan puts forward the development objectives of prefabricated buildings. On January 25, the Ministry of housing and urban rural development issued the 14th five year plan for the development of construction industry, which proposed to vigorously develop prefabricated buildings, build a standardized design and production system of prefabricated buildings, and improve the prefabricated concrete building structure system suitable for different building types. In terms of construction objectives, it is clear that during the 14th Five Year Plan period, the policy system and industrial system for the coordinated development of intelligent construction and new building industrialization are basically established, the proportion of prefabricated buildings in new buildings reaches more than 30%, and a number of industrial bases for intelligent construction and prefabricated buildings are cultivated. In terms of the long-term goal, the plan proposes that the construction industrialization will be fully realized by 2035.
Driven by the transformation of building industrialization, China's prefabricated buildings have ushered in rapid development. During the 13th Five Year Plan period, the cumulative built-up prefabricated building area reached 1.6 billion square meters, with an average annual growth rate of 54%.
Among them, the proportion of newly started prefabricated buildings in new buildings reached 20.5% in 2021, and there is still enough room for improvement from the 30% proportion planning requirements during the 14th Five Year Plan period.
In addition, the 3060 double carbon target brings new development opportunities for prefabricated buildings. Due to the mass industrial production of building components and the modular mechanized installation mode, prefabricated buildings can effectively save the use of building materials and construction energy consumption, have significant advantages in energy conservation and environmental protection, and help effectively reduce carbon emissions in the construction industry. It is expected to become an important development field under the carbon neutralization target, The demand and development speed of the industry will be further improved. With carbon peak and carbon neutralization as the main line of long-term investment, the field of prefabricated buildings with concrete structure and steel structure as the main forms has fully benefited from the further improvement of industry prosperity and demand release, and is expected to usher in the improvement of performance and valuation at the same time. It is suggested to pay attention to the high-quality targets of prefabricated building design and steel structure engineering, including the leader of prefabricated building design Shenzhen Capol International&Associatesco.Ltd(002949) Steel structure engineering contracting leader Changjiang & Jinggong Steel Building(Group)Co.Ltd(600496) and Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) .
Investment in transportation construction has increased steadily, and the trend is expected to continue. On January 27, the Ministry of transport released the data of transportation economic operation in 2021. It is estimated that the investment in transportation fixed assets in the whole year will exceed 3.5 trillion yuan (3582.6 billion yuan), with a year-on-year increase of 3.1% and an average increase of 5.1% in two years. Among them, the average growth in two years in the fourth quarter is 3.2%, which is roughly equivalent to the annual investment growth rate of 3.1% in 2019, and continues to operate within a reasonable range.
In 2022, the tone of China's steady growth continued to increase, and the infrastructure underpinning expectation was strong. At the meeting of the national development and Reform Commission, it was proposed to accelerate the implementation of 102 major engineering projects and special planning key projects in the outline of the 14th five year plan. Transportation construction is two new and one important areas. Recently, a number of construction plans have been released at the national and local levels, which is expected to benefit from the implementation of policies and plans, and the investment scale is expected to continue to increase.
In 2021, the national development and Reform Commission approved 90 fixed asset investment projects with a total investment of 775.4 billion yuan, mainly in transportation, energy, water conservancy, information and other industries. At the national level, the comprehensive transportation system construction plan of the western land and sea new channel during the 14th Five Year Plan period makes systematic planning and deployment arrangements for the construction of the comprehensive transportation system of the western land and sea new channel during the 14th Five Year Plan period; According to the 14th five year plan for the development of modern comprehensive transportation system, the focus areas of future transportation investment include high-speed railway, expressway, urban rail transit and intercity railway construction driven by the construction of metropolitan area and urban agglomeration. Focus on major areas such as water conservancy and transportation.
Position analysis of 2021q4 fund in construction industry. The fourth quarter report of the fund in 2021 has been disclosed. According to the statistical data of the fund's heavy positions, we mainly make statistics on the 2021q4 fund positions in the architectural decoration industry from the perspectives of industry allocation proportion, changes in shareholding sectors, ranking of shareholding market value, changes in shareholding list, changes in shareholding market value and the number of shareholding funds, and make a comparative analysis with 2021q3.
According to the statistics based on all equity and hybrid funds, the proportion of heavy positions in the building decoration industry (SW) in 2021q4 was 0.68%, an increase of 0.04 PCT compared with 2021q3. Under this statistical caliber, the heavy positions of public funds held 46 architectural decoration industry targets, an increase of 6 over Q3, with a total holding of 2.638 billion shares, a decrease of 9.37% month on month, and a market value of 22.690 billion yuan, an increase of 12.33% month on month. In terms of the market value of shares held by sub sectors, the market value of heavy positions held by steel structure (5.786 billion yuan), housing construction (4.942 billion yuan) and water conservancy engineering (3.145 billion yuan) ranked among the top three sub sectors. From the perspective of the change of the shareholding market value of each sub sector, the shareholding market value of the steel structure sector increased the largest month on month, reaching 2.777 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 92.35%; Followed by the chemical engineering sector, the market value of shares increased by 1.346 billion yuan, a month on month increase of 101.22%; The market value of shares held by international engineering contracting and road and bridge construction sectors increased by 90.75% and 12.21% month on month respectively; In addition, the market value of Q4 position of garden engineering increased by 35 million yuan month on month (month on month + 7032.75%).
From the perspective of heavy positions of individual stocks, the subject matter with the number of shares in the top 10 of the industry includes 9 leaders of infrastructure central enterprises and steel structures Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) , and the subject matter with the market value of shares in the top 10 of the industry includes 8 central enterprises and steel structures Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) and Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) .
Based on the statistical caliber of active public funds (mainly common stock + partial stock hybrid funds), the proportion of heavy position allocation in 2021q4 building decoration industry (SW) is 0.48%, which is 0.11 PCT higher than that in 2021q3. At the ultra / low allocation level, it is 1.40 PCT lower than that in the standard industry. Active public funds held 30 architectural decoration industry targets with heavy positions, an increase of 5 over Q3, holding 796 million shares, a month on month increase of + 4.23%, and a market value of 9.182 billion yuan, a month on month increase of + 36.84%.
In terms of the market value and number of shares held by sub sectors, the market value of heavy positions held by steel structure (4.118 billion yuan), housing construction (1.92 billion yuan) and Chemical Engineering (1.247 billion yuan) ranks among the top three sub sectors. Among the top 1.8 billion shares in the chemical engineering sector and the top 1.8 billion shares in the water conservancy construction sector.
From the perspective of the changes in the shareholding market value of each sub sector, the increase in the shareholding market value of the steel structure sector was the largest month on month, at 1.992 billion yuan, with a month on month growth rate of 93.65%; Followed by the chemical engineering sector, the market value of shares increased by 608 million yuan, an increase of 95.16% month on month; The market value of shares held by the international engineering contracting sector increased by 7289.39% month on month, mainly due to the substantial increase in Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) Q4; The market value of shares held by the housing construction sector increased by 16.28% month on month.
From the perspective of heavy positions of individual stocks, the construction targets held by 2021q4 active public offering funds are mainly the leading targets of various sectors. Compared with 21q3, Cofco Engineering & Technology Co.Ltd(301058) , Zhejiang Southeast Space Frame Co.Ltd(002135) , Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) , Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) , Dongzhu Ecological Environment Protection Co.Ltd(603359) , Wuhan Nusun Landscape Co.Ltd(300536) , China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) , Beijing Sanlian Hope Shin-Gosentechnical Service Co.Ltd(300384) and Shandong Sunway Chemical Group Co.Ltd(002469) new list of heavy positions of active public offering funds. According to the stock market value of heavy positions held by active public funds, the top 10 are: Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (2.543 billion yuan), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (1.88 billion yuan), Center International Group Co.Ltd(603098) (1.564 billion yuan), China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) (1.121 billion yuan), Power Construction Corporation Of China Ltd(Powerchina Ltd)(601669) (923 million yuan), Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) (303 million yuan), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (162 million yuan), Shaanxi Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600248) (115 million yuan), Zhejiang Yasha Decoration Co.Ltd(002375) (107 million yuan), Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) (90 million yuan), They are the leading targets of steel structure, infrastructure central enterprises, decoration and railway construction.
The number of shares held by the construction sector and the construction sector (+ 26.94 million / + 17.75 million shares) ranks first among the total number of shares held by the construction sector (+ 23.75 million shares) and the number of shares held by the construction sector (+ 26.95 million shares) and the construction sector (+ 19.95 million shares / + 19.75 million shares) respectively. Judging from the Q4 market performance of the above sectors, each sub sector achieved increases and decreases respectively as follows: Chemical Engineering (+ 8.91%), housing construction (+ 3.06%), steel structure (+ 15.84%), international project contracting (+ 3.88%), road and bridge construction (+ 12.79%). The number of shares held in 21q4 water conservancy project, decoration, railway construction and urban rail construction decreased by 75.8425 million shares, 33.003 million shares, 2012.71 million shares and 3.7736 million shares respectively month on month.
From the change of the number of shares held by individual stocks, 19 of the 30 heavy warehouse stocks in the construction industry have increased in the number of shares held by them, and the position increase level ranks among the forefront of the industry. The targets are mainly chemical engineering, steel structure leaders, undervalued infrastructure central enterprises and local state-owned enterprises, reflecting that under the expectation of steady growth, the investment value of undervalued infrastructure sector has gradually been recognized by institutions. The top 10 objects of the increase in the number of shares are China National Chemical Engineering Co.Ltd(601117) (+ 46581200 shares), China State Construction Engineering Corporation Limited(601668) (+ 33840800 shares), Anhui Honglu Steel Construction(Group) Co.Ltd(002541) (+ 32002900 shares), Sinoma International Engineering Co.Ltd(600970) (+ 26172000 shares), China Communications Construction Company Limited(601800) (+ 13156700 shares), China Nuclear Engineering & Construction Corporation Limited(601611) (+ 8556300 shares), Long Yuan Construction Group Co.Ltd(600491) (+ 5370700 shares), Sichuan Road & Bridge Co.Ltd(600039) (+ 3814300 shares), Jchx Mining Management Co.Ltd(603979) (+ 3494700 shares), Anhui Construction Engineering Group Corporation Limited(600502) (+ 2395200 shares).
Overall, in terms of the proportion of position allocation in the construction industry, since 2012, except for the obvious over allocation from 2012q1 to 2013q2, 2016q3 and 2017q1, the construction industry has shown a low allocation state in the rest of the time. The low allocation state continues in 2021. 2021q4 active public funds have increased the investment in undervalued infrastructure central enterprises The proportion of heavy warehouse allocation of local infrastructure leaders and high-quality chemical engineering and steel structure leaders may be mainly due to the continuous increase of steady growth and the strong expectation of infrastructure support. At present, the construction state-owned enterprises are basically oriented well, the market share increases significantly, and the performance is expected to continue to improve. At the same time, the "construction +" model has become a new trend in the development of the industry. The layout of high-quality construction enterprises has created new performance growth points. At the same time, it has helped to improve the valuation of the sector, and the overall configuration value of the industry is significant.
Investment view
At present, the overall fundamentals of the construction industry are improving, especially the rapid growth of orders from central infrastructure enterprises and local infrastructure leaders, which will help improve performance. In the future, it will take the lead in benefiting from the release of infrastructure demand under the goal of stable growth. At the same time, it will actively layout new businesses, improve comprehensive strength and help improve valuation. The construction industry is expected to usher in dual development opportunities of policy driven and "construction +" in 2022, At present, the construction industry is still in the undervalued range, and the investment value is prominent.
Among them, the policy is expected to become a major driving force for the "spring agitation" of the industry in 2022. The recent steady growth policy continues to increase, and the active fiscal policy should improve the efficiency. It is expected that the local special debt is expected to be launched in the first half of the year, "two new and one heavy" construction is expected to increase, and the suitability of infrastructure investment is expected to be advanced. Monetary policy should be flexible and moderate, and maintain reasonable and abundant liquidity. There are expectations of reducing reserve requirements and interest rates in 2022. Loose monetary policy is conducive to the development of the industry.
At the same time, the construction industry actively embraces the "new economy" and actively layout Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) around "construction +". BIPV, energy storage and carbon sequestration have become the key areas of the layout of listed companies. Some companies Shenzhen New Industries Biomedical Engineering Co.Ltd(300832) have achieved initial results and are expected to continue to make efforts in the future, so as to improve the valuation level of companies and industries. Industry leaders and regional leaders will continue to cultivate traditional businesses, expand the whole industrial chain and extend upstream and downstream around traditional businesses, and fully benefit from the improvement of industry concentration. The release of future performance is sustainable. The construction industry has both "white horse" with good performance and extremely low valuation and "dark horse" with "construction +" layout and standing at the market outlet. The overall trend of the industry is good, with fundamental support and policy catalysis, and "construction +" can improve the valuation space. It is an industry with "advance, attack and retreat" and is optimistic about the overall trend of the construction industry in 2022.
Configuration mainline recommendations
The overall fundamentals of the construction industry have improved. Industry leaders and regional leaders have benefited from the "national advance and people retreat" and the improvement of industry concentration. Both newly signed orders and performance have increased rapidly. At the same time, the construction industry actively embraces the "new economy" and the "construction +" era is coming, opening up the future development space of the company. On the main line of configuration, we propose to actively layout the "construction +" new business sector around the "two new and one heavy" infrastructure leaders and the "double carbon" background:
(1) "two new and one heavy" infrastructure leaders. Central construction enterprises and regional infrastructure leaders will fully benefit from the construction of "two new and one heavy", and central construction enterprises and regional infrastructure leaders are the main beneficiaries of "national advance and people retreat" and the improvement of industry concentration
