Core individual stock portfolio: Hangzhou Boiler Group Co.Ltd(002534) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Gcl Energy Technology Co.Ltd(002015) , Shenzhen United Winners Laser Co.Ltd(688518) , Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Qingdao Gaoce Technology Co.Ltd(688556) , Shenzhen Cotran New Material Co.Ltd(300731) , Hunan Baili Engineering Sci & Tech Co.Ltd(603959) , Pnc Process Systems Co.Ltd(603690) , Wuxi Lead Intelligent Equipment Co.Ltd(300450) , Zhejiang Hangke Technology Incorporated Company(688006) , Fujian Nebula Electronics.Ltd(300648) , Beijing Tianyishangjia New Material Corp.Ltd(688033) , Shuangliang Eco-Energy Systems Co.Ltd(600481) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Hangjin Technology Co.Ltd(000818) , Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Hnac Technology Co.Ltd(300490) , Hefei Kewell Power System Co.Ltd(688551) , Beijing Sdl Technology Co.Ltd(002658) etc.
Special research this week: in 2021, China’s wind power installed capacity increased by 47.57gw, second only to 2020; The newly installed capacity of photovoltaic is 53gw, which is lower than expected due to the lag in the issuance of indicators, the rise of upstream prices and other factors, but it provides a basis for subsequent high growth. We expect that under optimistic circumstances, the installed capacity of wind power and photovoltaic power in China will be 70gw and 75gw respectively in 2022, with a year-on-year increase of 47.15% and 41.51%. The high outlook will run through the whole year, especially under the background of great downward pressure on the economy. Specifically, according to public data, the average bidding price of wind power in 2021 fell from 3300 yuan / kW to 2200 yuan / kW. The continuous decline of bidding price is not only the inevitable requirement for wind power to enter the era of parity, but also an important manifestation of technological progress. From this trend, the price of onshore fans is expected to hover around 1×00 yuan / kW in 2022, and 2×00 yuan / kW of offshore fans will also become the norm; The lower than expected installed capacity of PV in China in 2021 is largely due to the high price of raw materials. With the gradual decline of upstream prices in 2022, China’s installed demand is expected to be stimulated and grasp the investment opportunities under the adjustment of industrial chain. It is suggested to pay attention to: Shenzhen Hopewind Electric Co.Ltd(603063) , Jiangxi Huawu Brake Co.Ltd(300095) , Lixing technology, Wuxi Autowell Technology Co.Ltd(688516) , Suzhou Maxwell Technologies Co.Ltd(300751) , Robotechnik Intelligent Technology Co.Ltd(300757) , Shenzhen S.C New Energy Technology Corporation(300724) , etc.
Key tracking industries:
Lithium battery equipment has a resonance in the global production capacity cycle. It is expected that the demand will exceed 100 billion yuan in 2025. Chinese equipment companies have obvious advantages and are fully optimistic about the first and second tier leaders with advantages in technology, products and scale;
For photovoltaic equipment, the iterative upgrading of equipment promotes the cost reduction of the industrial chain, and the penetration rate of hjt increases rapidly. At the same time, the decline in the price of photovoltaic raw materials is expected to stimulate downstream demand, and we are optimistic about the leaders of battery chips and module equipment;
Energy storage: energy storage is the necessary basis for building a new power grid. Policies are favorable to the implementation. Power generation and user side promote the prosperity of the industry, and are optimistic about leading companies in battery, inverter, integration and other links;
Semiconductor equipment is expected to meet us industry demand in 2030, reaching US $140 billion. Chinese mainland accounts for a larger share but the localization rate is still low. We hope that the platform companies and domestic alternatives will soon break through.
Automation, industrial consumables with a wide range of downstream applications, with a market scale of about 40 billion yuan, which is expected to reach 55.7 billion yuan in 2026. It is optimistic about the industry leaders benefiting from the improvement of concentration and import substitution;
Hydrogen energy and green hydrogen meet the requirements of carbon neutralization. The rapid development of photovoltaic and wind power lays the foundation for photovoltaic hydrogen production and wind power hydrogen production. We are optimistic about leading companies with the advantages of green hydrogen industrial chain integration;
For construction machinery, the strong is always strong. It is suggested to pay attention to the industry leaders and be optimistic about the complete machine and parts companies with product, scale and cost advantages.
