\u3000\u3000 Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Inc.China(688012) (688012)
Events
The company issued a performance forecast. In 2021, the operating revenue was 3.11 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 36.7%; The gross profit was 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 56.0%; The net profit attributable to the parent company is 950-1.03 billion yuan; Deduct the net profit not attributable to the parent company of RMB 280-330 million, with a year-on-year increase of 11-13 times.
Key investment points
The company is at the world advanced level in the field of semiconductor etching equipment
The company’s etching equipment revenue in 2021 was 2 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 55.4% and a gross profit margin of 44.4%. Downstream customers of the company’s plasma etching equipment include TSMC, the absolute leader of global wafer foundry, Hynix, the leader of memory, and Changjiang storage, a rising star in China. In the field of logic integrated circuits, the company has developed etching equipment less than 5nm for key processing, has obtained batch orders, and is developing more advanced Damascus and other processes; In the field of 3dnand, the company’s capacitive plasma etching equipment has been applied to mass production of 64 and 128 layers, and is developing a new generation of etching equipment and technology with high aspect ratio covering processes above 128 layers. The company has reached the world advanced level in the field of etching equipment, and will significantly benefit from the import substitution of China’s semiconductor equipment.
The number of newly signed orders has increased, and the profitability has been gradually improved
Chinese mainland, China’s largest semiconductor equipment demand area, is heavily dependent on imports, which not only affects China’s semiconductor industry, but also poses a major threat to the security of China’s information industry. The localization of semiconductor manufacturing is bound to drive the localization of equipment. The import substitution trend of domestic equipment is obvious and the substitution space is huge. The next decade is the era of electric and intelligent vehicles. Electric and intelligent vehicles need considerable sensors, while intelligent cockpit, vehicle communication, vehicle road coordination, electronic technology instead of mechanical technology will significantly stimulate the demand for semiconductors. Under the background of huge market space and low localization rate, independently and controllably promote the import substitution in the field of domestic semiconductors. Benefiting from this, the company signed 4.13 billion yuan of new orders in 2021, a year-on-year increase of 90.5%; The company’s comprehensive gross profit margin reached 43.1% in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 5.38pct. The company’s profitability is improved. It is expected that on the one hand, due to the company’s high gross profit margin, the proportion of the revenue of etching equipment will increase, and on the other hand, it will benefit from the scale effect of the company’s revenue growth.
Profit forecast
It is predicted that the company’s revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 3.11 billion yuan, 4.35 billion yuan and 6.1 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit will be 1.01 billion yuan, 1.38 billion yuan and 1.85 billion yuan respectively. The current share price corresponding to PE is 72, 53 and 40 times respectively. Considering the leading position of the company in the etching field of semiconductor equipment and the gradual volume of MOCVD equipment in the field of miniled, the company is committed to building a platform company, It will gradually grow into an influential semiconductor equipment company in the world, covering for the first time and giving a “recommended” rating.
Risk tips
The R & D investment in semiconductor equipment industry is huge, and there is a risk of R & D failure or failure to meet the needs of customers after the products are put into the market; The global semiconductor industry is transferring to Chinese mainland to mitigate risks. The progress of the raised investment project does not meet expectations, etc.
