\u3000\u3000 Sg Micro Corp(300661) (300661)
Event: on January 28, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will reach 650-722 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 125% - 150%; The net profit deducted from non parent company was 598-671 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 126.71% - 154.06%.
The application field has been continuously expanded and the annual performance has increased rapidly: according to the forecast, the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 650-722 million yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 125% - 150%; The net profit deducted from non parent company is 598-671 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 126.71% - 154.06%. It is estimated that the impact of non recurring profit and loss on the company's net profit in 2021 is about 51.3 million yuan. The growth of the company's net profit attributable to the parent company and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent company in 2021 over the same period of last year is mainly due to the company's active expansion of business, the improvement of product structure, the expansion of application fields and the increase of product sales, and the corresponding year-on-year growth of operating revenue and net profit.
The analog chip market has broad space and rich categories to build a moat for development: according to IC insights, the global signal chain market is expected to reach US $11.8 billion in 2023; According to transparencymarket research, the global power management chip market is expected to reach US $56.5 billion in 2026. According to IDC data, analog chips accounted for about 13% of the global semiconductor market in 2020, with a broad market space. The company has been engaged in analog chip business for many years. As a leading enterprise in China's analog field, its products mainly cover two fields: signal chain and power management. According to the company's 2021 semi annual report, the company currently has 25 categories and more than 3500 products available for sale. In the first half of 2021, the company launched more than 200 new products with completely independent intellectual property rights, with more than 1700 products contributed by sales revenue. From the growth history of international simulation leader Ti and the characteristics of simulation industry, rich simulation product categories and excellent product performance are important factors for the competitiveness of simulation enterprises.
Domestic analog enterprises such as Dezhou enling, Asiatics and Asiatics have been in a relatively stable state of prosperity, and the global market demand of domestic analog enterprises such as Asiatics, Asiatics and Asiatics has been relatively stable. According to the data of China Semiconductor Association, the self-sufficiency rate of analog chips in China is only 12% in 2020, and there are broad prospects for domestic substitution. Compared with digital chips, analog chip business is more stable, product categories are more and scattered, product life cycle is longer, and high-end analog chip design depends more on the experience accumulation of high-end personnel, and the first mover enterprises have more advantages. According to the company's announcement, at present, the comprehensive performance indicators of some products of the company have reached the advanced level of similar products in the world, and some key technical indicators have reached the international leading level, which can be replaced by imports. Benefiting from factors such as the improvement of scene tolerance in downstream cities, the expansion of application fields and the improvement of the company's brand influence, the logic of domestic substitution and long-term growth is clear.
Investment suggestion: we estimate that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 2.25 billion yuan, 3.014 billion yuan and 3.798 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 676 million yuan, 814 million yuan and 962 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 96 times, 79 times and 67 times of PE respectively, maintaining the "Buy-A" investment rating.
Risk tips: downstream demand attenuation risk, market competition risk, raw material and sealed test price fluctuation risk, new product R & D risk.
