\u3000\u3000 Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) (600872)
Real estate settlement promoted performance and maintained the "overweight" rating
Jonjee Hi-Tech Industrial And Commercial Holding Co.Ltd(600872) released the performance forecast for 2021, and the annual revenue is expected to be 5.12 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.14%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 753 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.39%. It is estimated that the revenue of 2021q4 company is expected to be 1.7 billion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 29.8%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 390 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 73.9%. In the fourth quarter, the revenue of Meiweixian subsidiary is expected to be 1.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 210 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.6%. The real estate projects of the parent company contribute more revenue to the performance. Considering the real estate settlement, the profit forecast is raised. It is estimated that the net profit from 2021 to 2023 will be 750 (+ 1.9), 780 (+ 0.9) and 910 (+ 0.7) million yuan respectively, and the EPS will be 95 (+ 0.24), 98 (+ 0.01) and 114 (+ 0.09) yuan respectively, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.4%, 3.7% and 16.4%. The corresponding PE classification of the current stock price is 33.8, 32.6 and 28.0 times. The low point of the company's business has passed. At present, it has good valuation and cost performance, and maintains the "overweight" rating.
The price increase stimulated the preparation of goods through channels, and delicious food achieved positive growth in the fourth quarter
Meiweixian subsidiary is expected to achieve an accelerated growth of 6.7% in 2021q4, mainly due to: first, the price increase in November stimulated the increase of channel stock; Second, condiments have entered the peak sales season, and they have a recovery trend; Third, the negative impact of community group buying has slowed down. Looking forward to 2022, despite the stimulation of price increase, the loss of some demand and product degradation will take time to digest, and the whole is still under pressure. It is expected that the revenue of condiment business will increase by nearly 10% in 2022.
Low base leads to the acceleration of the growth rate of delicious net profit
In 2021q4, the net profit of delicious food increased by 10.6%, faster than the revenue. The main reason lies in the asset impairment of Zhongshan plant in 2020q4, resulting in a low profit base in the same period. We judge that under the cost pressure, the gross sales difference in the fourth quarter may still decline year-on-year. The condiment industry is generally facing cost pressure, and most enterprises have raised prices in the fourth quarter. It is expected that the profit pressure may be reduced in 2022 and the profit is expected to accelerate upward.
Make progress while maintaining stability in 2022 and look forward to management improvement
In 2022, the trend of condiment industry is stable and upward, but it is still facing demand and cost pressure. The company lays a solid foundation and strives for progress while maintaining stability, which is in line with the actual situation of the current market. The focus in the future is that after the equity incentive scheme is implemented, on the one hand, the management is consistent with the overall demands of the company to optimize the team relationship; On the other hand, improve the morale and business motivation of middle-level employees and solve the problem of employees' enthusiasm. The interest demands are consistent, and the management improvement can be expected.
Risk tip: raw material price fluctuation risk and epidemic spread lead to demand decline.
