\u3000\u3000 Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) (003043)
Event: on January 29, 2022, the company released the performance forecast for 2021. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021 will be 102-114 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 42% - 58%, and the median net profit attributable to the parent company will be 108 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 50%, which is basically in line with our expectations; The net profit after deduction of non return to parent company was 96-108 million yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 39-56%.
Key investment points
The median net profit of 2021q4 single quarter was + 92% year-on-year, and the orders on hand were full
In a single quarter, the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 19-31 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 48% - 140%, and the median net profit attributable to the parent company in 2021q4 was 25 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 92%, which was basically in line with our expectations. The company has entered the leading supply chain system of global semiconductor equipment such as Amat and Lam, fully benefiting from the fact that the global semiconductor equipment industry chain is in short supply and has full orders on hand. With the implementation of the company's raised investment projects to release production capacity, the certification of domestic customers has made a breakthrough, and the domestic substitution process of parts is expected to accelerate, ushering in a golden development period.
The high boom of semiconductor equipment industry is expected to continue in 2022, and upstream parts manufacturers will fully benefit
According to the semiconductor equipment industry's total year-on-year expansion report of US $103.1 billion in 2021, the semiconductor equipment market is expected to maintain a year-on-year expansion of US $11.2 billion in 2021, and the total sales of semiconductor equipment is expected to reach US $103.2 billion in 2021. According to TSMC's legal person briefing in January 2022, TSMC's capital expenditure in 2022 is expected to be US $40-44 billion, a year-on-year increase of + 40%, driving the investment demand of upstream equipment. The high prospect of semiconductor equipment industry chain in 2022 is expected to continue. Suzhou Huaya Intelligence Technology Co.Ltd(003043) upstream parts manufacturers and the ultimate major customers are global semiconductor equipment leaders Amat and Lam, which are expected to fully benefit from the wave of industry expansion.
China's semiconductor equipment structure and assembly market has great long-term growth potential
The company is located in the metal structural parts of China's semiconductor equipment, and is expected to expand to the downstream assembly link, with great long-term growth potential. According to our calculation, structural parts account for 6% of the value of semiconductor equipment and assembly accounts for 9%. In 2021, the scale of the company's target market (global semiconductor equipment structural parts + Chinese assembly) is about 39 billion yuan. We expect that the company's semiconductor business revenue in the same period is only 300 million yuan, accounting for less than 1% of the target market share.
Profit forecast and investment rating: the prosperity of semiconductor equipment industry is good, and the company's production capacity is released smoothly. However, considering the fluctuation of quarterly cost rate, we expect the company's net profit attributable to the parent company to be adjusted from 115 million yuan to 108 million yuan in 2021, and maintain 180 / 270 million yuan in 2022-2023. The current market value corresponding to PE is 51 / 31 / 20x respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
Risk tip: fluctuation risk of semiconductor industry; Risk of decline in gross profit margin; Customer industry transfer risk.
