\u3000\u3000 Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) (688499)
Event: the performance forecast was released on Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) January 27, 2022.
Key investment points
The performance forecast is in line with market expectations, waiting for the large volume of power field
The performance forecast for 2021 is in line with market expectations. The company expects to realize a net profit attributable to the parent company of 210-230 million yuan in 2021, a year-on-year increase of + 49% - 65%, and wind unanimously expects 220 million yuan; Deduct non net profit of RMB 200-220 million, a year-on-year increase of + 60% - 78%; In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company in a single quarter was 50-70 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of + 8% - 49%. The high growth of revenue and profit in 2021 mainly benefited from the rapid growth of revenue recognized from the purchase order of lithium battery equipment. In 2021, the company signed a new order of nearly 5 billion yuan for power lithium battery and the notice of winning the bid. We expect that in 2022, with the gradual recognition of revenue from power lithium battery equipment orders, the company's performance growth is highly uncertain.
Equity incentive focuses on the improvement of profitability, and the scale effect is about to become prominent
In November 2021, Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) launched the restricted stock incentive plan (Draft), focusing on the improvement of future profitability from the perspective of performance objectives: calculated according to the net profit attributable to the parent after excluding the impact of equity payment expenses, the net interest rates of the company from 2021 to 2023 are 10% / 13% / 15% respectively.
We believe that the net profit margin of Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) will continue to increase, mainly for three reasons: 1) since 2020q4, the power battery plant has entered the peak of production expansion, the scarcity of equipment manufacturers' production capacity is prominent, the high-end production capacity is insufficient, and the voice of Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) and other leading equipment manufacturers has further improved; 2) The acceleration of downstream production expansion requires higher delivery capacity of equipment manufacturers, and only large-scale manufacturers can better meet the delivery time requirements; 3) The scale effect will bring down the expense rate and Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) net interest rate will continue to rise.
It plans to issue convertible bonds to raise 950 million yuan and actively expand production capacity
In January 2022, the company announced the issuance of convertible bonds to raise 950 million yuan, of which 700 million yuan was used for the industrialization project of special aircraft in the front and middle sections of lithium batteries and complete sets of equipment for the whole line (with a total investment of 1.15 billion yuan). The company is expected to have an annual income of 2.76 billion yuan and a net profit of 350 million yuan. The project is conducive to ensuring Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) order delivery capacity, improving the supply capacity of front and middle section equipment with high value such as coater and lamination / winding machine, and enhancing the delivery capacity of the company's whole line equipment.
In depth cooperation with honeycomb and other customers continues to benefit from the expansion of power battery production
In July 2021, the company won the bid of 16.3399 million euros (about 125 million yuan, using the exchange rate of 7.6542 euros to RMB on July 31, 2021); In August, it announced that it had won the bid for honeycomb Huzhou and other base projects, totaling about 1.545 billion yuan, and signed the strategic cooperation framework; In December, it was announced that it had won the bid of 876 million yuan for honeycomb Huzhou, Suining and other projects, and the new orders signed with honeycomb since 2021 totaled 2.546 billion yuan. Beehive has actively expanded its production, with a capacity under construction of 297gwh and a capacity target of 600gwh in 2025. As a strategic cooperation supplier, Guangdong Lyric Robot Automation Co.Ltd(688499) will fully benefit. In addition, the company has established long-term cooperation with Avcon Information Technology Co.Ltd(300074) and {30007750} suppliers. With the active expansion of the power battery plant, the performance of the company's power lithium battery equipment is more flexible.
Profit forecast and investment rating: benefiting from the high outlook of the industry and sufficient orders of the company, we adjusted the forecast of net profit attributable to the parent company from RMB 240 / 4.6 / 800 million in 2021-2023 to RMB 2.2 (down 8%) / 4.8 (up 4%) / 810 (up 1%) million, corresponding to 99 / 46 / 27 times of the current share price PE, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the growth rate of lithium battery industry slows down or declines, and the competition pattern worsens.
