\u3000\u3000 Zhuhai Enpower Electric Co.Ltd(300681) (300681)
The net interest rate returned to a reasonable level, and the performance of 2021q4 exceeded market expectations. The company issued the annual performance forecast for 2021. During the reporting period, the net profit attributable to the parent company was 46-56 million yuan (median 51 million yuan), and the net profit not attributable to the parent company was 13-23 million yuan (median 18 million yuan); In Q4, the net profit attributable to the parent company is about 29-39 million yuan (median 34 million yuan), and the net profit deducted from the non attributable to the parent company is 29-39.1 million yuan (median 34.1 million yuan). The non recurring profit and loss has little impact on the profit. The company's performance exceeded the market expectations. The analysis is as follows: 1) with the alleviation of the shortage of chips + the launch and sales of the new model Q4 of Weima & Geely + the postponement of some orders to Q4 confirmation in 2021q3, we expect the revenue end of 2021q4 to increase significantly month on month; 2) With the large-scale production of many models of products and the domestic substitution of some core devices, we expect the gross profit margin to rise significantly month on month. 3) We expect that in order to ensure the smooth delivery of new models, the investment in R & D and management expenses in 2021q4 will increase more month on month. Considering that the median net profit attributable to the parent and net profit deducted from non attributable to the parent in 2021q4 is 34 million yuan, the profit margin in 2021q4 is expected to exceed 5%, showing a bright performance. Looking forward to 2022, the company has abundant orders on hand and sufficient capacity in Zhuhai + Shandong double bases. Assuming that the chip supply problem is effectively solved, the profit margin is expected to continue to maintain a high single digit level.
The short-term delivery of passenger cars is tight. With the alleviation of chip problems and the implementation of production capacity, it is expected to usher in a simultaneous increase in volume and profit from 2022. In terms of fixed-point models: 1) in terms of passenger cars, the main revenue in 2021 was mainly contributed by Wuling Hongguang mini, Geely, Weima and JAC. The passenger car sector increased by + 319% in 2021h1. However, the delivery of 2021q3 was tight due to chip shortage, and the problem of 2021q4 chip was alleviated. With the listing and sales of early fixed-point models such as Weima E5, the chain increased significantly compared with 2021q3. Looking forward to 2022-2023, SAIC GM Wuling Kaijie (hybrid), Xiaopeng P7 and other stock fixed-point products will also be listed in 2022, and incremental customers such as mainland China, great wall and new power auto enterprises are expected to obtain project fixed-point products. 2) In terms of commercial vehicles, ZF and forklift group were bound to maintain steady growth together with medium and low-speed vehicles. 3) In terms of capacity, in 2021, the company plans to raise 976 million yuan to invest in Zhuhai Base transformation and capacity expansion, Shandong Heze phase II and other projects. The company's dual base has sufficient capacity in 2022 + is in the climbing stage. If the impact of chip shortage is not significant in 2022, the revenue and profit are expected to have strong growth elasticity.
Equity incentive is deeply bound to key personnel, with conservative objectives to ensure the smooth exercise of rights. The company issued the draft of equity incentive and plans to grant 4 million stock options (accounting for about 5.29% of the total share capital), with an exercise price of 95.95 yuan / share. The incentive objects are the core backbone of the company and 16 industry leaders introduced in 2019. The share transfer + current incentive plan is deeply bound with interests, and the top-level design is more solid. The performance assessment target is that the net profit in 2022 / 2023 / 2024 will not be less than 60 million yuan / 100 million yuan / 180 million yuan. The target is conservative to ensure the exercise of rights, which better binds the interests of the core team through equity incentive.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions: as the company's profit margin recovered beyond market expectations, we raised the company's net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 by 50 million yuan (+ 30 million yuan), 198 million yuan (+ 47 million yuan) and 372 million yuan (+ 57 million yuan), with a year-on-year increase of + 279%, + 296% and + 88% respectively. For PE at 154x, 39x and 21x respectively, we gave a target price of 154.8 yuan, corresponding to 60 times of PE in 2022, Maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk tip: the penetration of new energy vehicles does not meet expectations, the sales volume of passenger car related products is lower than expected, and the price competition is intensified.
