In 2026, China's public equity fund market is expected to reach 27.75 trillion yuan, and the wealth management industry is a trillion blue ocean with broad prospects: under the background of the migration of Chinese residents' assets to financial assets, we believe that the equity market may face a continuous rise in prosperity, and the public equity fund is expected to "ride the wind". Compared with the United States, suppose ① China's GDP can reach 142.32 trillion yuan in 2026, corresponding to cagr5.2 trillion yuan 8%； ② In 2026, the total assets of residents will be 6.5 times of GDP; ③ In 2026, fund assets accounted for 5.0% of total assets; ④ In 2026, equity funds account for 60% of the total funds. We expect that China's fund assets will reach 46.25 trillion yuan in 2026, of which the scale of equity funds, one of the main battlefields of the wealth management industry, is expected to reach 27.75 trillion yuan, about four times that of 2020. China's wealth management industry is a trillion blue ocean with great potential.
The profit core of the wealth management industry is products and channels, and their voice is different in the seller mode and the Buyer Mode: in the seller mode, wealth management is driven by sales, and more customers mean more sales revenue. On the product side, a large number of asset management companies need customers and sales from external channels to make up for their weak sales ability. Therefore, the quantity is better than the price, and the channel is the strongest competitiveness of the wealth management industry. In the buyer mode, AUM is the core of wealth management income. In addition to the number of customers, asset appreciation / investment income will also determine the scale of AUM and enhance the importance of product side. Asset management companies will continue to attract new assets and promote AUM growth with professional asset management ability or excellent investment performance, or directly drive the appreciation of stock assets and boost AUM upward with outstanding investment and research ability, which is two-thirds of the world with the channel end.
Drawing on the experience of overseas mature markets, wealth management institutions with differentiated competitive advantages will stand out in the field of intensive cultivation and segmentation at both ends of channels and products: ① at the channel end, wealth management institutions are mainly divided into third-party platform type and comprehensive type, such as high-efficiency, high-efficiency, high-end and high-end wealth management institutions serving middle-class and mass long tail customers Jiaxin wealth management, which provides standardized products, and UBS, which serves high net worth and ultra-high net worth customers, is comprehensive and has rich product personalization. Although they are different, they both attract customers by anchoring customer segments and providing corresponding customer touch, transformation and services, so as to promote AUM growth. ② On the product side, it can be divided into two types of asset management companies that provide standard product system and non-standard product system, such as BlackRock, which focuses on passive investment targets, t. roweprice, which provides active management of investment targets, and Blackstone, the king of non-standard alternatives. All three have created competitive advantages of exclusive products in subdivided fields, Through comprehensive and detailed product system or excellent investment performance, we can realize the double increase of the number of customers and AUM.
Investment suggestions: channel side recommendations: ① build a wealth ecosystem around mass customers and seize the market through the three core competitiveness of high traffic + low cost + excellent service [China stock market news]; ② With one-to-one in-depth service and customized product shelves, we can achieve all-round coverage, accurately match the differentiated needs of customers, and occupy [ China International Capital Corporation Limited(601995) (H shares)] in the high net worth customer base. The product side recommends [ Sichuan Shuangma Cement Co.Ltd(000935) ] under the non-standard product system, which inherits IDG's excellent ability of raising, investing and managing; And pay attention to the standard product system through [ Gf Securities Co.Ltd(000776) ] and [ Orient Securities Company Limited(600958) ] of holding / participating fund companies.
Risk tips: 1) the tolerance of the capital market scene decreased and the stock market adjusted significantly; 2) Stricter regulatory policies, industries and companies are suppressed; 3) The macroeconomic downturn weakened the investment demand of residents.
