Performance forecasts have been released one after another, and high growth is expected to catalyze the short-term sector market. Since this week, listed companies in the sector have successively released performance forecasts for 2021. From the released companies, the performance of most listed companies has shown a high growth situation. The net profit attributable to the parent company in Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) 2021 increased by 455.84% year-on-year, corresponding to 4xpe (corresponding to the closing price on January 21, the same later), and Shanxi Coal International Energy Group Co.Ltd(600546) increased by 444.14% to 504.59% year-on-year, corresponding to 4xpe, China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) increased by 99.4% to 143.6% year-on-year, corresponding to 6 ~ 7xpe, Shanxi Lanhua Sci-Tech Venture Co.Ltd(600123) increased by 473.33% to 553.33% year-on-year, corresponding to 5 ~ 6xpe. Next week, it is expected that some listed companies in the sector will successively release performance pre increase announcements. The profit growth of the sector is obvious, the valuation is low, and the superimposed coal price is still in the rebound channel, which is expected to catalyze the market of Listed Companies in the sector in the short term.
The price of power coal in ports and producing areas continued to rise. As of January 21, wind data showed that the market price of q5500 thermal coal in Qinhuangdao port closed at 957 yuan / ton, up 57 yuan / ton on a weekly basis. Shanxi Datong q5500 closed at 815 yuan / ton, up 39 yuan / ton on a weekly basis, Shaanxi Yulin q5800 index closed at 935 yuan / ton, up 70 yuan / ton from last week, and Inner Mongolia Inner Mongolia Eerduosi Resources Co.Ltd(600295) q5500 closed at 801 yuan / ton, up 61 yuan / ton from last week.
Key port inventories fell. In terms of ports, according to wind data, on January 21, the inventory of key ports (SDIC Jingtang Port, Qinhuangdao port and Caofeidian port) was 8.38 million tons, with a decrease of 640000 tons on a weekly basis. According to cctd data, on January 20, the inventory of eight coastal provinces was 32.44 million tons, with a decrease of 460000 tons on a weekly basis, 15.5 days available and 0.9 days on a weekly basis.
Before the Spring Festival, the purchase price rebounded more than expected, and the high inventory of the power plant restrained the rebound height. With the approaching of the new year, some small mines have been shut down for holidays, and the supply has been tightened slightly. In the downstream, the supply of electricity and non electricity downstream is active before the Spring Festival, and the short-term market demand is relatively strong. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, the holidays of downstream industrial enterprises increase, and the demand for non electricity downstream is expected to fall. The inventory of the power plant is at a high level, and the procurement rhythm may slow down. It is expected that the market will be in a weak situation of supply and demand during the Spring Festival, but due to the high inventory of power plants, it may have a certain inhibitory effect on the height of price rebound.
Coke prices rose steadily this week. According to wind data, as of January 21, the factory price of Tangshan secondary metallurgical coke closed at 3200 yuan / ton, up 140 yuan / ton on a weekly basis; The market price of Linfen secondary metallurgical coke closed at 2880 yuan / ton, unchanged on a week-on-week basis. In terms of ports, the price of Tianjin Port Co.Ltd(600717) primary metallurgical coke was 3310 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis.
Coke or supply and demand are weak, and the price runs smoothly. According to the coal resources network, at present, most coking enterprises produce and sell immediately, the shipment is smooth, and the inventory in the plant continues to decline. However, with the approaching of the Winter Olympic Games, the production restriction policy in the surrounding areas of Beijing has gradually become clear. Coke and steel enterprises are facing the expectation of production restriction, and the coke price is expected to be weak in both supply and demand. However, the short-term coking plant is still in the stage of inventory reduction, the profit of the steel plant is poor, but there is still a strong demand for procurement in the short term, and the price is expected to run smoothly.
Coking coal prices in ports and producing areas rose steadily. According to wind data, as of January 21, the price of main coking coal in Jingtang Port was 2830 yuan / ton, unchanged on a weekly basis. As of January 21, the price of hard coking coal in Fengjing mine in Australia was US $420 / ton, up US $10 / ton on a weekly basis. In terms of origin, according to the coal resources network, CCI Shanxi’s high sulfur week on week ratio rose by 72 yuan / ton this week.
Coking coal prices are expected to run smoothly. According to the coal resources network, near the end of the year, at present, some coal mines in Inner Mongolia, Taiyuan Gujiao, Linfen Guxian, Jinzhong Lingshi and other areas have stopped production and holidays, and the supply of coking coal has shrunk slightly. Downstream, some steel mills have slightly limited production, while some coke enterprises have completed winter storage and replenishment, the demand for raw coal has decreased, and the price is expected to run smoothly.
Investment suggestions: 1) companies with stable profits and high cash flow are also expected to usher in value revaluation. It is suggested to pay attention to Jinneng Holding Shanxi Coal Industry Co.Ltd(601001) , Shanxi Lu’An Environmental Energydev.Co.Ltd(601699) , China Shenhua Energy Company Limited(601088) , Shaanxi Coal Industry Company Limited(601225) , China Coal Energy Company Limited(601898) . 2) The transformation of traditional energy enterprises to new energy has kicked off, and power investment energy and Yankuang energy are recommended. 3) Under the dual carbon target, we recommend Shanxi Blue Flame Holding Company Limited(000968) as the target for methane emission reduction.
