\u3000\u3000 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (600309)
The competitive advantage of the next wave in the chemical industry lies in the bonus of engineers. Wanhua is a rare model in China that drives the development of companies with technological innovation. Based on excellent culture, the company has created two moats of high technology and low cost through technological innovation and excellent operation. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is stepping into the ranks of global chemical giants with the pace of cyclical growth stocks.
In the short term, the fundamental factor affecting Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is the prosperity of the product. From the characterization index, the price difference is the core factor affecting the short-term profit. The product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) is becoming larger and larger. In order to better represent the prosperity of the company, we take the product system of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) as a whole, model the difference between revenue and raw materials according to the existing product system, trace the price difference between revenue and raw materials in history under the existing product system, and define the price difference as Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) price difference index, To judge the prosperity position of the company. In the long run, the fundamental aspect affecting Wanhua is its future growth. Landmark products that can prove the company's ability to continuously evolve are very important. If an excellent company can succeed on different tracks, it will prove that it has the ability of continuous evolution and will be able to grow continuously. Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) has proved itself on the MDI track. The projects that the company may land in the future are the direction of the company's future development and the space for the company's continuous evolution.
Progress of key projects
On January 4, 2022, the environmental impact assessment of gas expansion and reconstruction project, a supporting project for MDI integrated expansion of Wanhua Fujian Industrial Park, was publicized for the first time.
On January 5, 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) the environmental impact report of the technical transformation project of special isocyanate type high-end TPU with an annual output of 25000 tons was publicized before approval.
On January 5, 2022, Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) 850000 T / a polyether polyol expansion project environmental impact report was publicized before approval.
On January 12, 2022, Fuzhou ecological environment bureau announced the approval decision on the comprehensive utilization of large-scale coal gasification effective gas of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) Co., Ltd. - annual output of 480000 tons of formaldehyde.
On January 12, 2022, Fuzhou ecological environment bureau announced the approval decision on the 800000 ton PVC project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) Co., Ltd.
On January 14, 2022, Fuzhou ecological environment bureau announced the approval decision on the project of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) (Fujian) Co., Ltd. with an annual output of 1.08 million tons of aniline.
According to incomplete statistics, according to the average price of 2021, if all the existing planned projects of Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) are put into operation as scheduled, it is expected that the new revenue will be 20.8 billion yuan in 2022, 56 billion yuan in 2023, and 1497 billion yuan after all the projects are put into operation.
MDI price spread
In January 2022, the average price of aggregate MDI was 20977 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 14.09% and a month on month increase of + 10.35%; The average price of pure MDI was 21369 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of - 3.19% and a month on month increase of + 4.03%. On January 26, 2022, the price of aggregate MDI is 20900 yuan / ton, and the price of pure MDI is 21650 yuan / ton. In January 2022, the average price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 14919 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of + 5.26% and a month on month increase of + 12.62%; The average price difference of pure MDI was 15312 yuan / ton, with a year-on-year increase of - 14.27% and a month on month increase of + 3.60%. On January 26, 2022, the price difference between polymerized MDI and coal and pure benzene was 14584 yuan / ton, and the price difference of pure MDI was 15334 yuan / ton.
The Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index is in the historical quantile of 35.58%
As of January 26, 2022, Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) spread index in 2022 was 98.60, 3.32 lower than Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 35.58%, down 3.91 percentage points from Q4 in 2021. Among them, the price difference index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) polyurethane sector in 2022 was 123.88, an increase of 7.02 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 37.65%, an increase of 4.87 percentage points over Q4 in 2021. The price spread index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) petrochemical sector in 2022 was 76.99, a decrease of 15.06 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 21.20%, 26.43 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021. In 2022, the price difference index of Q1 Wanhua Chemical Group Co.Ltd(600309) new materials was 56.29, down 11.02 compared with Q4 in 2021; It is in the historical quantile of 21.81%, 18.52 percentage points lower than Q4 in 2021.
The output of refrigerators, freezers and cars in the downstream and the new construction of real estate improved month on month
In 2021, China produced 89.93 million household refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of - 1.1%; The export volume was 71.22 million units, a year-on-year increase of + 2.4%. In 2021, China produced 29.06 million refrigerators, a year-on-year increase of - 4.5%. Among them, in December 2021, China produced 7.578 million household refrigerators, with a year-on-year increase of - 5.20% and a month on month increase of - 6.27%; The export volume was 5.46 million units, with a year-on-year increase of - 15.74% and a month on month increase of - 34.0%; China's refrigerator output was 2.736 million units, with a year-on-year increase of - 16.5% and a month on month increase of + 3.1%.
In 2021, China's automobile output was 26.06 million, a year-on-year increase of + 3.5%; In December 2021, China's automobile output was 2.91 million, with a year-on-year increase of + 2.35% and a month on month increase of + 12.48%.
In 2021, the new construction area of houses was 1.989 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of - 11.4%; Among them, in December 2021, the new construction area of houses was 161 million square meters, with a year-on-year increase of - 31.1%, unchanged month on month. In 2021, the cumulative construction area of houses was 9.754 billion square meters, a year-on-year increase of + 5.2%.
Profit forecast and investment rating
It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company from 2021 to 2023 will be RMB 25.003 billion, 26.637 billion and 28.490 billion respectively, corresponding to PE of 11.6, 10.8 and 10.1 respectively, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk tips:
Economic downturn; The project construction is not as expected; The market fluctuates greatly; New products are not as expected; Environmental protection and safety production; Intensified competition in the same industry; Product prices fell sharply; The price of raw materials has risen sharply.
