\u3000\u3000 Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) (688071)
The stage from 0-1 is the process of breaking the cold test technology and opening up China's import substitution. Entering the stage of 1 - ∞, we will answer why we are optimistic about Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) from the perspective of industry development + market space?
Cold test vs hot test: the advantage of cold test may be more obvious
China's hot test is dominated, and the cold test will accelerate the replacement with the advantages of cost + environmental protection + Safety + efficiency + precision.
The company's engine cold test product technology has broken through and filled the gap in China, with obvious first mover advantage + technical advantage.
Prospective indicators: powertrain intelligent test and prosperity of automobile industry
The inflection point of automobile sales growth has reached, and the growth rate in 21 years has changed from negative to positive, and the automobile industry has ushered in a recovery.
Low car ownership per capita + increased penetration of new energy vehicles, high industry outlook + high growth potential.
The automotive powertrain testing industry is "small and beautiful", and Huayi is only at the tip of the iceberg
Test equipment: it is estimated that in 2025, the global market scale will be 15.413 billion yuan (CAGR ≈ 7.54% in 21-25 years), China will be 5.539 billion yuan (CAGR ≈ 9.66% in 21-25 years), and the market share of Shanghai W-Ibeda High Tech.Group Co.Ltd(688071) test equipment in China will only be 7.62%, with large import substitution space;
Test service: it is estimated that in 2025, the global market scale will be 17.08 billion yuan (CAGR ≈ 8 in 21-25 years) and China will be 6.14 billion yuan (CAGR ≈ 11 in 21-25 years). At the initial stage of the transformation from equipment supplier to service supplier, China's market share will be less than 1%, and it is optimistic about the potential growth space in the future. The company's advanced road: technology + brand + forward-looking layout
Technology breaking: through independent research and development + practice accumulation, the cold test technology fills the gap of China's key technologies, breaks the long-standing foreign monopoly of the industry, realizes import substitution and constructs technical barriers.
Brand blessing: leading technology + first mover advantage + talent resources + localization advantage + cost performance. The brand is recognized by customers. Establish close cooperation with SAIC GM, GAC Honda, Chang'an Ford, Chang'an Mazda, Saic Motor Corporation Limited(600104) , FAW Group, Dongfeng Group, Beiqi Foton Motor Co.Ltd(600166) , Anhui Jianghuai Automobile Group Corp.Ltd(600418) , Chery Automobile, Weichai group, Guangxi Yuchai, Weilai automobile and other well-known automobile enterprises.
Forward looking layout: taking advantage of the rapid development of the field of hybrid electric vehicles, we won "nearly 100 million small target" orders of Byd Company Limited(002594) and Great Wall Motor Company Limited(601633) ; Layout the inertial measurement unit, open the second growth curve, soft work first, and the product is expected to achieve revenue in 2022.
Profit forecast and Valuation: we expect the company's revenue to be RMB 353 / 517 / 652 million, net profit to be RMB 57 / 100 / 139 million and P / E to be 78 / 45 / 32 respectively from 2021 to 2023. Give the company 0.9 times peg in 2022, and the target price is 69.55 yuan. For the first time, give a "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the growth rate of the automobile industry is at risk of decline; Fluctuation risk of new energy vehicle market demand; Risk of uncollectible accounts receivable; Risk of long depreciation life of fixed assets; Inventory impairment risk; Market competition intensifies risks; Market space measurement deviation risk; Risk of stock price fluctuation in the short term.
