\u3000\u3000 Tcl Technology Group Corporation(000100) (000100)
Key investment points
Event: the company released the performance forecast for 2021, and the estimated operating revenue is 161.6-165.0 billion yuan, an increase of 111.0% – 115.0% over the same period of last year; The net profit was 15.0-15.35 billion yuan, an increase of 196.0% – 203.0% over the same period of last year; The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 10-10.3 billion yuan, an increase of 128.0% – 135.0% over the same period of last year; The net profit excluding non recurring profit and loss was 9.35-9.55 billion yuan, an increase of 219.0% – 226.0% over the same period of last year. The company’s performance increased rapidly year-on-year, in line with expectations.
TCL Huaxing semiconductor display + central semiconductor photovoltaic two blossoms, and the company’s performance growth in 2021 is considerable. In 2021, the company’s performance increased rapidly, mainly due to: 1) benefiting from the high prosperity of the industry in the first half of the year, the continuous shipment of medium and high-end large-size panels and the flexible adjustment and optimization of the company’s production capacity structure, the company’s semiconductor display business maintained a high growth rate under the condition of high market share: the revenue increased by more than 80% year-on-year and the net profit increased by more than 330% year-on-year. 2) With scientific and technological innovation, Zhonghuan semiconductor has accelerated the scale of G12, and the transformation of product structure has been smoothly promoted. Among them, the profit of photovoltaic materials business has increased significantly, which has become a new driving force for the company’s performance growth in 2021. 3) The industrial finance sector ensures the stable contribution of the whole year and enables the support of the company’s core industries.
The large-size TV panel industry is leading, the small and medium-sized panel continues to enter the field of it and vehicle, and the company’s semiconductor display business structure will continue to be optimized. The panel industry was highly prosperous in the first half of 2021. Although the panel price was corrected in the second half of 2021, the company maintained a good profit level with its leading advantage in medium and high-end large-size panels. With Samsung’s withdrawal of LCD production capacity, it is expected that the industry concentration will be further improved and the industry competition pattern will be improved. The company’s high-end positioning in TV and commercial display is conducive to the stable profitability of its large-scale business. With the release of the production capacity of T9 production line positioned for high value-added display screen, the company’s share in it and vehicle field shows an upward trend, the dynamic capacity allocation will be more reasonable, and the company’s competitiveness and profitability are expected to be further improved.
Central semiconductor photovoltaic materials and multi line layout, showing economies of scale. In terms of photovoltaic materials, the company gave full play to the technical advantages of G12 + laminated tiles, accelerated the expansion of production and rapidly increased the market share. The production capacity of semiconductor materials has been steadily expanded, and the 8-12 inch product structure has been continuously upgraded. While the yield and gross profit margin have been improved, the operating cost of the factory has been reduced. In the future, the company will accelerate the expansion of G12 silicon wafer production, reduce costs and increase efficiency, and the company’s business profitability is expected to continue to grow.
Profit forecast and investment suggestions. From 2021 to 2023, the company’s operating revenue is expected to be 162.32/179.23/2018.7 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company is expected to be 10.24/129.9/15.15 billion yuan respectively. Considering the company’s competitive advantage in medium and high-end large-size panels, the expansion of semiconductor business and the high valuation enjoyed by the photovoltaic industry, the company is given a 12 times PE valuation in 2022, corresponding to the target price of 11.16 yuan, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning: repeated epidemic risk; The risk that the ramp up of production capacity is less than expected; Downstream demand is less than expected risk.
