\u3000\u3000 Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) (002739)
Wanda Film Holding Co.Ltd(002739) disclosed the performance forecast for 21 years. It is estimated that the net profit attributable to the parent company will be RMB 90-130 million in 2021, and the net profit after deduction will be RMB 10-30 million. Both the net profit attributable to the parent company and after deduction will turn into profit compared with last year. The corresponding net profit attributable to the parent company of 21q4 is - 200 million to - 160 million yuan.
In 21 years, with the overall stable epidemic situation, China Film Co.Ltd(600977) market recovered to a certain extent. The national box office reached 42.86 billion yuan (excluding service fees), 130.4% year-on-year, and the number of film viewers reached 1.17 billion, an increase of 112.7% year-on-year, and recovered to about 70% in 2019. However, due to repeated local epidemics, cinemas in medium and high-risk areas have been suspended, and some film shooting and release plans have been adjusted. At the same time, under the influence of overseas epidemics, the supply of imported films is insufficient. The number of imported films in 2021 is nearly half lower than that in 2019, and the box office is reduced by about 15 billion, accounting for 15.5% from 37.5% in 2019. The film industry is still greatly affected. Therefore, the recovery degree of the company's overall performance in 21 years is also affected accordingly.
In terms of Chinese cinema business, the recovery degree of the company is better than that of the market, the proportion of cinema market has increased steadily, and the recovery of advertising business is slow. The company achieved a box office of 6.22 billion yuan and 160 million film viewers in the whole year of 21 years, a significant increase over 2020, and has recovered to 80% in 2019, nearly 10 percentage points higher than the industry average. As of December 31, 2021, the company has 790 cinemas and 6750 screens in China, including 699 directly operated cinemas and 6063 screens. The cumulative market share of the company's cinemas (including franchising) in 2021 was 15.3%, maintaining a steady increase. However, affected by the downward pressure of macro-economy and the decline of box office and person times under the epidemic, the company's advertising business recovered slowly.
In terms of Australian cinemas, 21q4 fully resumed business, and the Australian market began to recover rapidly. In 2021, the company's Australian cinema achieved a box office of about 740 million yuan and 9.45 million film viewers, with a significantly narrower loss than that in 2020. 21q4 Australian cinemas have fully resumed business, and films such as dune, 007: no time to die and Spider Man 3: no return of heroes have been released one after another. Among them, Spider Man 3: no return of heroes has nearly $1.7 billion at the global box office, and the Australian film market is also recovering rapidly.
In terms of film and television content, there are still many film reserves in 22 years, which is expected to contribute to performance flexibility. In 2022, the company's film "miracle: stupid child" will be released in the Spring Festival. The main film "Hello, brother" (formerly known as "little brother Wu") has been scheduled to be released on April 30, 22. Mozart in outer space is planned to be released in the summer. In addition, "Want to see you", "no spring will not come", "peacekeeping and anti riot team", "ghost blowing the sky star technique" and "looking for her" will also be released at the right time
Investment suggestion: due to the repeated local epidemics and the lack of imported films in 21 years, the recovery progress of the film industry has been delayed, and the core focus in 22 years is on the recovery progress of the film market. The industry is under pressure in the short term, but we believe that the medium and long-term logic of high-quality film leaders has not changed. Small and medium-sized enterprises will accelerate the liquidation in the cold winter of the industry, and the competitive advantage and market share of the head company are expected to continue to improve. According to the company's performance forecast for 21 years, we lowered the company's net profit attributable to the parent company in 21 years to 110 million (the previous value was 479 million). It is expected that the net profit attributable to the parent company in 22-23 years will be 1.275 billion / 1.623 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to 25.5x/20.1x PE in 22-23 years, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic, the recovery progress of the film market does not meet expectations, the box office of film projects does not meet expectations, the promotion and delay of TV dramas and games and other projects, the cash flow risk under the fluctuation of operating performance, and the performance forecast is the preliminary calculation result, which shall be subject to the annual report data.
