\u3000\u3000 Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) (300454)
Event: on January 25, the company released the annual performance forecast for 2021. It is expected to achieve a revenue of 6.707 billion yuan - 6.816 billion yuan in 2021, with a year-on-year increase of 22.87% - 24.87%; The net profit attributable to the parent company was 241-309 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 61.82% - 70.22%; Deduction of net profit not attributable to parent company was 101-169 million yuan, with a year-on-year decrease of 75.05% - 85.09%.
The budget of downstream customers is limited + the company adheres to the long-term strategy and maps it to the slowdown of revenue growth. In 2021, the company's profit fell significantly compared with the growth rate of revenue. On the one hand, due to the epidemic and other force majeure factors, the customer's budget could not be invested in the construction of network security as needed; On the other hand, the "one drop and one rise" of gross profit margin and cost brought by cloud transformation is a short-term pain. The company's long-term strategic goal will shift to the xaas model with cloud computing as the core. Cloud computing with low gross profit margin will gradually increase the proportion of revenue, resulting in the decline of the overall gross profit margin; Both channels and R & D are carried out simultaneously with the promotion of transformation strategy, so as to ensure the closed-loop improvement of "R & D - Sales - feedback - update" and further strengthen the core competitiveness of the company.
Adhere to xaas as the core, and it is expected to turn to subscription system in the future. The company's own businesses are mainly infrastructure as a service hosting cloud, security as a service SASE architecture sangforaccess, desktop as a service desktop cloud adesk and operation and maintenance management as a service MSS. It can be clearly seen that the core strategic direction of xaas is "everything is service". In the context of digital transformation, the pattern of enterprises going to the cloud and focusing on private cloud and hybrid cloud will be the main line. The company's focus on service mode is in line with the overall context and is expected to complete the full coverage of front-end and end services.
Investment suggestion: with the tide of digital transformation, the main logic of network security will be sublimated from "cost side + compliance promotion" to "product power + end service". Customers' willingness to take the initiative to build will be greatly improved compared with the tradition. Sangfor Technologies Inc(300454) as a scarce manufacturer with perfect channel services in the industry, with its own excellent R & D capabilities, it is expected to quickly open a new pattern of network security in the future. According to the performance forecast of the company in 2021, we adjusted the forecast value of the previous period. It is estimated that the company's revenue from 2021 to 2023 will be 6.749/95.30/12.704 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit attributable to the parent company will be 3.11/7.05/1.389 billion yuan respectively. The corresponding PE in 22 / 23 years is 91x and 46x, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk tip: cloud transformation is not as expected; The repeated and continuous epidemic situation has led to the limited budget of downstream customers; The channel construction was not as expected.
